BEC商务考试中多设计商务背景，有专家建议可以精读 The Ecomomists这样的英语杂志，这样对完形填空和改错都很有帮助。

The world economy

Buckle down

Recovery from the recession, when it comes, will be slow and painful

当经济从衰退中恢复，进程将缓慢而痛苦

IS THE worst over for the world economy? In recent weeks financial markets have latched on to the “green-shoots” thesis, rising smartly as an array of statistics turned out to be less dire than expected. Policymakers, too, have begun to sound less pessimistic. On April 14th both America’s president, Barack Obama, and its central-bank boss, Ben Bernanke, pointed to signs of progress in stabilising the world’s biggest economy.

世界经济已经渡过最难阶段了么？近几周来，金融市场抓住“绿色嫩芽”大做文章并明显有所起色，数据结果显示经济不如预期的那么可怕。政策制定者们也开始看起来少了些悲观，4月14日美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马和美联储主席本•伯南克均指出世界最大经济体——美国经济已产生回稳信号。

Optimism may be fashionable, but there are plenty of reasons to fear it is premature. The upbeat thesis focuses on firms and their inventories. The global economy slumped at the end of 2008 in part because firms slashed production even faster than demand fell. Now that the stockpiles have shrunk, output should stop slumping. This may be happening. Forward-looking surveys of manufacturers have improved.

乐观主义也许符合潮流，但仍有很多理由说明这种判断为时过早。持乐观观点的人聚焦于与公司和公司的存货。2008年底全球经济下滑的部分原因是由于公司削减产量超出了需求下降速度，而目前存量收缩，产量应能够阻止经济下滑。这也许是对的，厂商的前瞻性考虑使得情况有所改善。

The danger, however, is that too much emphasis on the stock cycle misses the underlying characteristics of this downturn. This is mainly a balance-sheet recession precipitated by a financial crisis. And it is a downturn that it is unusually synchronised around the globe.

然而，危险在于对于存货周期的过度关注导致人们忽略了这次经济下滑的根本特征：这次下滑主要是由金融危机派生的资产负债表衰退，同时也是异乎寻常的全球性同步衰退。

As an analysis in the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook makes clear, each of these characteristics points to a deep recession and a weak recovery. The fund’s economists examine 122 recessions in rich economies since 1960. They find that in the aftermath of a financial bust, private investment tends to fall even after the downturn reaches its trough, whereas private consumption grows more slowly than in other recoveries. Recoveries from globally synchronised recessions take 50% longer than other recoveries.

正如国际货币基金组织“世界经济展望”中的分析文章所解释：这些特征表明了经济的深度衰退和恢复乏力。该组织的经济学家对1960年后发达经济体的122次经济衰退进行了研究，研究结果显示金融崩溃后，当经济衰退见底后，私人投资仍将继续下降，而个人消费与经济恢复其他特征相比增长更为缓慢。全球同步的经济衰退恢复相较其他衰退恢复要多用二分之一的时间。

Some green shoots are already wilting. America’s retail sales fell in March. And dark shadows are looming, particularly the spectre of deflation. America’s consumer prices fell by 0.4% in the year to March, the first annual decline since 1955 (see chart). Consumer prices are once again falling in Japan and are barely rising in the euro area.

一些“绿色嫩芽”已经开始枯萎。美国三月份零售业出现下滑，阴影开始蔓延，特别是通缩的凶兆。截至09年3月，美国零售价格降低了0.4%，出现了1955年以来的首次年度下滑。零售价格在日本再次出现下滑，在欧洲也几乎没有增长。

No one doubts that a prolonged period of deflation would pose grave dangers. Falling prices would raise the real burden of debts. The prospect of lower prices would weaken demand. But optimists still regard that risk as remote. Today’s deflation, they argue, is nothing more than the temporary consequence of falling fuel costs. Exclude food and fuel and America’s core consumer prices are still rising at 1.8%, within the central bankers’ ideal range and well above the lows reached during America’s last deflation scare in 2002.

没有人质疑长期的通货紧缩将导致严重风险。价格的持续下降将提升债务负担，低价格将削弱需求。但乐观主义者们仍认为这种风险距离遥远，他们认为今天的通缩只不过是燃料费用下降的暂时结果导致。剔除食物和燃料，美国关键零售价格仍上涨了1.8%，这个数字处在美联储官员们的理想范围之内，也高于2002年美国发生通缩恐慌时达到的低点。

This sanguine attitude has evidence to support it. Not only have central bankers opened the monetary floodgates, but American consumers’ expectations for future inflation have barely changed in recent months. Still, there are reasons to fret. Consumer surveys suggest the share of people who expect their incomes to decline is the highest on record. Wholesale-price figures suggest that prices other than energy are falling further down the supply chain. The share of small businesses in America that are cutting workers’ wages has doubled. The Fed’s latest “Beige Book” report on economic conditions suggested downward pressure on prices and wages. Things could yet get a lot grimmer.

这种乐天态度得到了事实支持。美联储官员们打开了货币泄洪闸，美国消费者们对未来的通胀预期也数月未变。但仍有原因需要顾虑：消费者调查显示预期收入下降的人口比例有史最高，批发价格图表显示除能源类产品，其他产品价格下降远超供给价格。美国进行减薪的中小企业比例增长一倍。美联储最新的“褐皮书”中关于经济情况的报告中指出存在价格和工资的下行压力。情况也许会变得更糟。