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Donald Trump's economic agenda: Taxes down, wars up
特朗普的经济政策：税收降低，贸易战打响
The Trump trade is already in full swing. As it became clear that Donald Trump would win the presidential election, American stocks soared, the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields jumped higher.
特朗普贸易已经全面展开。随着唐纳德·特朗普将赢得总统大选的形势变得明朗，美国股市飙升，美元走强，国债收益率跳涨。
The price movements contain two messages about the direction of Mr Trump’s economic policies. The promise of big tax cuts, combined with his zeal for deregulation, will boost growth, especially in the short term.
这些价格走势包含两条有关特朗普经济政策走向的信息。第一是大幅减税的承诺再加上他对放松监管的热情将促进经济增长，尤其是短期内的经济。
But the spectre of tariffs and a crackdown on immigration may drive up inflation and, eventually, undercut America’s economic strengths.
第二是阴魂不散的关税和对移民的打击可能会推高通货膨胀，最终削弱美国的经济实力。
Gauging the potential impact of Mr Trump’s policies is, however, no easy task. As ever with him, there is uncertainty about whether he means all that he says. He is, for instance, obviously fond of tariffs but he may also, sometimes, treat them as leverage with other countries rather than as end goals.
然而，判断特朗普政策的潜在影响并非易事。就像他以往一样，他说的话是否都是真心的还不确定。比如，他显然喜欢关税，但有时他可能将关税视为撬动其他国家的杠杆/影响其他国家的手段，而不是最终目标。
There is also uncertainty about how much he will be able to achieve. Mr Trump’s team has evolved from the chaos of his first term into what appears to be a more finely oiled operation.
对于他能落实多少政策也存在不确定性。特朗普的团队经历了他混乱的第一任期后，已经成长为一个似乎运转更加良好的组织。
And Republicans are on track for a trifecta, as Mr Trump’s resounding victory is likely to come alongside a solid majority in the Senate and a narrower one in the House of Representatives.
而且共和党人有望获得三连胜，特朗普的巨大胜利很可能伴随着共和党在参议院的绝对多数席位，以及在众议院的微弱多数席位。
Still, moderates in the party will have the clout to whittle down some of his agenda.
不过，共和党内的温和派会有牵制特朗普政策的势力。
Mr Trump’s economic programme can be divided into three main categories: lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs. He also has some broader policies—in particular, a looming crackdown on immigration—that could have a profound effect on the economy.
特朗普的经济计划可以分为三个主要类别：降低税收、全面放松监管、提高关税。他还有一些更广泛的政策——特别是即将对移民进行打击——可能会对经济产生深远影响。
Start with the biggest source of immediate excitement for investors and company executives: the sugar rush of tax cuts and, just as importantly, an end to the spectre of tax increases. Kamala Harris had called for raising the corporate-tax rate from 21% to 28% and introducing a tax on unrealised capital gains.
首先是让投资者和公司高管们立即感到兴奋的最大来源：减税带来的甜蜜冲击，以及同样重要的：增税阴影的消散。卡玛拉·哈里斯曾主张将企业税率从21%提高到 28%，并对未实现资本收益征税。
To the great relief of many on Wall Street, those proposals are now off the table. Instead, the Republican sweep could, in theory, open the door for Mr Trump to slash taxes.
令华尔街许多人大松了一口气的是，这些提议现在已被弃置。相反，从理论上讲，共和党的全胜可能会为特朗普减税打开大门。
His priority will be to extend the cuts in personal income tax he made in 2017, which are due to expire at the end of next year. He has talked about reducing the corporate-tax rate, perhaps to 15%. And he has also floated a dizzying array of other possible cuts, including ending taxes on tips.
特朗普的首要任务将是延长他在2017年实施的个人所得税削减政策，该政策将于明年年底到期。他已谈到降低企业税率，也许会降至15%。并且他还提出了一系列令人眼花缭乱的其他可能的削减措施，包括结束对小费征税。
