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At Lake Champlain Chocolates, the owners take shifts stacking boxes in the warehouse.
在尚普兰湖巧克力工厂，工厂老板们轮换班地在仓库码箱子。
At Burlington Bagel Bakery, a sign in the window advertises wages starting at $25 an hour.
在伯灵顿的贝果面包店，橱窗里的一块牌子上写着招工广告，工资最低每小时25美元。
Central Vermont Medical Center is training administrative employees to become nurses.
佛蒙特中部医疗中心正在培训行政人员成为护士。
Cabot Creamery is bringing workers from out of state to package its signature blocks of Cheddar cheese.
卡博特乳品公司正从其他州招募工人，来为其标志性产品切达奶酪打包装盒。
The root of the staffing challenge is simple: Vermont’s population is rapidly aging.
人员短缺问题的根源很简单：佛蒙特州的人口正在迅速老龄化。
More than a fifth of Vermonters are 65 or older, and more than 35 percent are over 54, the age at which Americans typically begin to exit the work force.
佛蒙特州超过五分之一的人年龄在65岁或以上，超过35%的人超过54岁，这是美国人通常开始退休的年龄。
No state has a smaller share of its residents in their prime working years.
佛蒙特州劳动年龄人口所占的比例比其他各州都小。
Vermont offers an early look at where the rest of the country could be headed.
它为美国其他地区未来的发展前景提供了前车之鉴。
The baby boom population is aging out of the work force, and subsequent generations aren’t large enough to replace it.
婴儿潮一代正在变老并退出劳动力大军，而随后几代人的数量还不足以完全替代婴儿潮一代。
Immigration slumped during the pandemic, and though it has since rebounded, it is unclear how long that will last, given a lack of broad political support for higher immigration.
疫情期间移民人数大幅下降，尽管之后有所反弹，但鉴于缺乏对增加移民的广泛政治支持，目前还不清楚移民人数会持续增长多久。
Birthrates are falling.
人口出生率也正在下降。
“All of these things point in the direction of prolonged labor scarcity,” said David Autor, an economist who has studied long-term work force trends.
“所有这些因素都指向劳动力长期短缺。”研究长期劳动力趋势的经济学家大卫·奥托尔说，
Employers are fighting over scarce workers, offering wage increases, signing bonuses and child care subsidies, alongside enticements such as free ski passes.
雇主们正在争夺稀缺的工人，提供加薪、奖金和育儿补贴，以及免费滑雪通行证等诱人福利。
When those tactics fail, many are limiting operating hours and scaling back product offerings.
当这些策略未能起效时，许多公司会缩短营业时间，减少产品供应。
A rural state — Burlington, with a population under 45,000, is the smallest “biggest city” in the country — Vermont has for decades seen young people leave for better opportunities.
佛蒙特州是以农村为主的州，其最大城市伯灵顿的人口不到4.5万，是美国规模最小的“最大城市”。几十年来，佛蒙特州的年轻人为了寻求更好的机会而纷纷离开家乡。
And while other states have helped buttress their work forces through immigration, Vermont’s foreign-born population has remained small.
其他州通过移民而补充了劳动力，但佛蒙特州的外国出生人口仍然很少。
But demographics are at the root of the problem.
但问题的根源还是人口结构。
There were similar shortages across the country in 2021 and 2022, as demand — for both goods and workers — surged after pandemic lockdowns.
2021年和2022年，全国各地都出现了类似的短缺，因为在疫情封控结束后，对商品和工人的需求都迅速增长。
The overall labor market has become more balanced as demand has cooled and Americans have returned to the work force.
随着需求降温和美国人重返劳动力大军，整体劳动力市场变得更加平衡。
But economists and demographers say shortages will re-emerge as the population ages.
但经济学家和人口学家表示，随着人口衰老，短缺将重新出现。
Long-run labor scarcity will look different from the acute shortages of the pandemic era.
长期的劳动力短缺与疫情期间的严重短缺将有不同的表现。
Businesses will find ways to adapt, either by paying workers more or by adapting their operations to require fewer of them.
企业要找到适应这种情况的方法，要么支付更高的工资，要么调整运营，减少对工人的需求。
Those that can’t adapt will lose ground to those that can.
那些无法适应的企业将输给那些能适应的企业。
“It’s just going to be a new equilibrium,” said Jacob Vigdor, an economist at the University of Washington, adding that businesses that built their operations on the availability of relatively cheap labor may struggle.
“一种新的均衡会出现，”华盛顿大学的经济学家雅各布·维格多说。他还表示，那些依靠相对廉价的劳动力而运营的企业可能会遇到困难。
“You may discover that that business model doesn’t work for you anymore,” he said. “There are going to be disruptions. There are going to be winners and losers.”
“你可能会发现，这种商业模式不再适合你了，”他说。“原有的模式会被打乱，会产生赢家和输家。”
