评论
打印
Since early March, three large banks have collapsed and required government intervention.
自3月初以来，已有三家大型银行倒闭，需要政府干预。
Mr. Powell suggested that trouble in the sector was causing at least some banks to pull back on extending credit, but was clear that the extent of the impact was uncertain.
鲍威尔暗示，银行业的问题导致至少部分银行减少了信贷发放，但他明确表示，这些问题的影响程度尚不确定。
If consumer spending continues to chug along in spite of the banking upheaval and higher interest rates, it could allow companies to continue raising prices.
如果消费者支出在银行业动荡和利率上升的情况下仍勉力增长，这可能会让企业继续提价。
In that case, the Fed may need to do more to make sure that inflation comes back under control.
在这种情况下，美联储可能需要采取更多措施，以确保通胀重新得到控制。
But if the economy is barreling toward a recession in light of recent developments, the Fed might instead strike a more cautious stance.
但是，如果根据最近的事态发展，经济朝衰退的方向猛冲，那么美联储可能会采取更谨慎的立场。
Julia Coronado, the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, thought Fed officials were likely to pause.
宏观政策展望的总裁兼创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多认为，美联储官员可能会暂停加息。
She said that although she thought inflation could remain high in the next few months, she expected to see a more substantial moderation in the second half of the year as price increases for rent and used and new cars slowed.
她说，尽管她认为通胀可能在未来几个月保持在高位，但她预计随着租金、二手车和新车价格上涨放缓，下半年的通胀率将出现更大幅度的缓和。
“It’s not like inflation is going to suddenly start cooling,” she said.
“通胀不会突然开始降温，”她说。
“But the economy will be cooling and the banking distress will remain front and center, and that will add to the credit tightening the economy has to absorb.”
“但经济会降温，银行业的困境仍将是首要问题，这将加剧信贷紧缩问题，而这是经济将必须承担的。”
When the Fed raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive, and often more difficult, for families to take out loans to buy houses or cars, or for businesses to raise money for expansions.
当美联储加息时，家庭贷款购房或购车、企业融资扩张的成本就更高也更难。
That slows both consumer spending and hiring.
这既减缓了消费者支出，也减缓了招聘。
As wage growth sags and unemployment rises, people become more cautious and the economy decelerates further.
随着工资增长放缓，失业率上升，人们将变得更加谨慎，而经济发展将进一步减速。
That chain reaction can be painful.
这种连锁反应是很痛苦的。
When Paul Volcker’s Fed raised interest rates to nearly 20 percent in the early 1980s, it helped to push joblessness above 10 percent.
当保罗·沃尔克担任美联储主席，在20世纪80年代初将利率提高到近20%时，利率也将失业率推高至10%以上。
But today’s Fed does not expect to raise interest rates nearly that high, and officials have been hoping they can engineer a “soft landing”: a situation in which the economy pulls back enough to return inflation to normal, but not so much that lots of people lose their jobs.
但现在的美联储不会将利率提高到这么高的水平，官员们也一直希望他们能够策划一场“软着陆”：经济回落到足以让通胀恢复正常的程度，但又不至于回落太多而让很多人失去工作。
Mr. Powell has maintained that a positive outcome like that might still be possible.
鲍威尔坚持认为，像这样的积极结果仍有可能出现。
Fed staff members, by contrast, think a mild recession is likely this year, Mr. Powell said.
鲍威尔说，与他形成对比，美联储工作人员则认为今年可能出现温和衰退。
