The true scale of the educational fallout will be unknown for years, because it manifests itself in future decisions like dropping out of high school or university. It will also remain murkier because typical barometers, such as the standardised tests administered in crowded school halls have also been impeded. What evidence exists now does not look encouraging.
人们数年都无法洞悉停止面授对教育的影响真正有多大，因为这次的影响会显现在高中辍学或大学辍学等未来的决定中。也可能仍旧模糊，因为有一些典型的指标也受到了阻碍，比如在拥挤的教室里进行的标准化考试。现存证据显示并不明朗。
A team of five education scholars recently calculated that American schoolchildren in 2020 learned 30% less reading and 50% less maths than they would in a typical year. Despite that, the top third of pupils posted gains in reading. Data from Opportunity Insights, an economic-research outfit at Harvard University, show that after lockdowns began in March pupils from low-income neighbourhoods fell permanently behind on online maths coursework, whereas those from richer areas quickly rebounded.
一个由五位教育学者组成的研究小组最近计算出，相较于正常年份，2020年的美国学童的阅读量减少了30%，数学学习量减少了50%。尽管如此，排名前三分之一的学生还是进行了大量阅读。根据哈佛大学一家经济研究机构OpportunityInsights的数据，显示自三月份实行封锁以来，低收入社区的学生在在线数学课程学习方面一直落后，而来自富裕地区的学生则快速进步。
Disruptions to schooling tend to lower achievement while increasing inequality. But rarely do so many shocks pile up at once. First, schooling is now being conducted online. Previous attempts at virtual education in America have not looked promising. A study of virtual public schools in Georgia by Carycruz Bueno of Brown University found significantly reduced test scores in almost all subjects, and a ten-percentage- point drop in the chance of graduating from high school. Her results look worse for black and Hispanic children.
中断学校教育往往会降低成绩，同时加剧不平等现象。但是，很少会出现大量的冲击同时赶在一起的现象。首先，学校教育现在转为网课。美国以前尝试过进行虚拟教育，但结果并不乐观。布朗大学的卡里克鲁兹·布埃诺开展了一项针对佐治亚州公立学校线上授课的研究，发现几乎所有科目的考试成绩都显著降低，高中毕业的几率也下降了10%。针对黑人和西班牙裔学生的研究结果更加糟糕。
Then there is the problem of access to online classes. Nearly half of Native American pupils and 35% of black and Hispanic ones do not have access to either a computer or the internet at home, compared with 19% of whites. Worsening mental health among poorer families will also hurt achievement. Elizabeth Ananat of Barnard College and Anna Gassman-Pines of Duke University surveyed hourly service-sector workers in Philadelphia who had young children; half were screening positive for anxiety or depressive disorders.
还有一个问题在于上网课的途径。接近一半的美国土著学生，以及35%的黑人和亚裔学生的家中无法使用电脑和网络，相比之下，白人学生只有19%。来自贫困家庭的学生的心理健康恶化也会危害成绩。巴纳德学院的伊丽莎白·阿纳特和杜克大学的安娜·加斯曼-皮恩斯对费城家中有儿童的钟点工展开了调查，其中一半人对此并不乐观，反而表示焦虑和抑郁。
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