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Today I've got guest and Physicist Max Tegmark here to answer some questions…
今天我们请来的嘉宾是物理学教授Max Tegmark，他会来回答我们的一些问题...
Ok, Max, why should I care about nuclear weapons?
那么Max，我为什么要在乎核武器呢？
Because we've learned that they're even more dangerous than we first thought:
因为我们知道它们比我们起初认为的要更加危险，
The biggest threat from nukes isn't explosions that each kill millions of people, or radioactive fallout that kills even more,
核武器最大的威胁并不是能够杀死百万人的爆炸或是导致进一步死亡的放射性尘降物
or even a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse that causes mayhem by frying the electrical grid and electronics across a continent
或是通过破坏整个大陆的电网和电子设备而造成混乱的一种高空电磁脉冲
No, the biggest threat from nuclear weapons is a global nuclear-induced winter, in which the fires and smoke from as few as a thousand nukes
都不是，核武器最大的威胁是一个由核引发的全球冬季，此时来自1000枚核武器的火焰和烟雾会使大气层变暗，
could darken the atmosphere enough to plunge Earth into a planet-wide mini ice age with year-round winter-like conditions.
足以使地球陷入一个全球性的小冰河时代，终年处于类似冬季的环境中。
This could cause a complete collapse of the global food system and apocalyptic unrest, potentially killing most of us 7 billion people on Earth.
这可能导致全球粮食系统的全面崩溃和世界末日般的动荡，有可能导致地球上70亿人中的大多数死亡。
But didn't we get rid of most nuclear weapons when the cold war ended?
但冷战结束时，我们不是已经摆脱了大多数核武器了吗？
Well… Yes and no. When the cold war ended, the US and Russia slashed their nuclear arsenals,
嗯，是也不是。当冷战结束时，美国和俄罗斯削减了他们的核武库，
but they still have about 7000 nukes each, which could allow either country to create a nuclear winter all on its own, even if the other doesn't retaliate.
但是这两个国家仍分别拥有约7000种核武器，即使对方不采取报复行动，这也能让他们凭一己之力创造一个核冬天。
But why should I worry about nuclear winter when nobody in their right mind would ever start a nuclear war?
但既然头脑正常的人都不会发动核战争，我为什么要担心核冬天呢？
Unfortunately, an all-out nuclear assault isn't as unlikely as you might think,
不幸的是，全面的核攻击并不是不可能发生的，
because the most likely way for nuclear war to start isn't political – it's accidental.
因为引发核战争最可能的方式不是政治，而是意外。
For example, the time faulty computer chips in US alarm systems erroneously signaled incoming Soviet missiles
例如，美国警报系统中有故障的计算机芯片错误地发出了苏联导弹来袭的信号，
and the US started to prepare for full-blown retaliation.
美国开始准备全面报复。
Or the time that Russian satellites mistook an unusual glint of sunlight off of clouds for incoming American missiles
或者俄罗斯卫星误以为云层上一缕不同寻常的阳光是来袭的美国导弹，
and an officer averted retaliation by ignoring the alarm on gut instinct.
一名军官凭借直觉无视警报，避免了报复。
Or the time after the cold war ended when Russian radar systems thought a Norwegian scientific rocket was an American nuclear missile
又或者冷战结束后，俄罗斯雷达系统认为挪威的科学火箭是美国的核导弹
and almost launched their missiles in retaliation.
几乎要发射导弹进行报复。
These close-calls keep happening, and sooner or later our luck is gonna run out and an entire nuclear arsenal will be launched accidentally.
这些险情不断发生，我们的运气迟早会耗尽，整个核武库将被意外发射。
But isn't getting rid of nukes a national security threat?
但为什么不摆脱这个威胁国家安全的核武器呢？
Well, it's pretty clear that a country only needs a small number of nuclear weapons to effectively deter nuclear attacks,
很明显，一个国家只需要少量的核武器就可以有效地阻止核攻击，
and any more are as much a national security threat to the nation that owns them as to the rest of the planet.
任何更多的核武器对拥有核武器的国家和地球上其他国家都是国家安全的威胁。
So given the risks of accidental nuclear war and nuclear winter, it's stupid, dangerous,
因此，考虑到意外核战争和核冬天的风险，
and irresponsible for any country on earth to have more nuclear weapons than it needs for deterrence.
地球上任何一个国家拥有的核武器超过威慑所需的数量都是愚蠢、危险和不负责任的。
If we just continue hoarding excessive nuclear arsenals, winter is coming.
如果我们继续囤积过多的核武库，冬天就要来了。
OK, Max, one more question: why should I spend my time worrying about nukes when there's nothing I can do about them?
好的，Max，还有一个问题：既然我对核武器无能为力，为什么还要花时间去担心它呢？
Actually, there is something you can do!
事实上，有些事情你可以做！
The nuclear arms race isn't driven entirely by security interests: money drives it too, and politicians who like to act tough.
核军备竞赛并不完全是由安全利益驱动的：金钱也是驱动因素，还有喜欢采取强硬行动的政客们。
In a time when they really should be downgrading, the US Russian governments are both planning to upgrade their arsenals at a huge cost.
在他们确实应该降级的时候，美俄两国政府都计划以巨大的代价升级他们的军火库。
And who does that money go to? Well, about 2% of S&P 500 companies are involved in nuclear weapons production,
这些钱进了谁的口袋呢？标准普尔500指数中，大约2%的公司参与了核武器的生产，
and while you can't stop paying taxes, you can help stigmatize the nuclear arms race by divesting from companies that produce nuclear weapons.
虽然你不能停止纳税，但你可以从生产核武器的公司撤资以帮助抹黑核军备竞赛。
It's really easy, and I'll give you a link that you can put in the video description to a site that helps you do just that.
这真的很容易，并且我会给大家一个链接，通过链接就能做到。。
Thanks, Max and thanks to the Future of Life Institute for their support and help producing this video!
谢谢Max，谢谢Future of Life Institute对本节目的支持和帮助！
