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A rift over migrants threatens Merkel’s coalition
移民问题上的分歧威胁默克尔联盟
By Ian Bremmer
文/伊恩·布雷默
German chancellor Angela Merkel hasn’t had much chance to enjoy her fourth term.
德国总理默克尔并没有多少机会享受第四次连任的喜悦。
In September elections, her party took its lowest vote share since 1949,
在9月份的选举中，其政党选票支持率降到了自1949年以来的最低水平，
partly because of an open-arms approach to Europe’s migrant crisis that cut into her popularity.
部分原因在于她对欧洲移民危机的开放态度降低了她的支持率。
It took her six months to woo reluctant partners into a coalition.
她花了足足6个月时间才说服了那些不情愿的伙伴加入她的联盟。
And though crime and migration are both down, Merkel is in trouble once again.
尽管犯罪率和移民人数都在下降，默克尔还是再次陷入了泥潭。
Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, leader of the more conservative Bavarian party in coalition with Merkel,
内务部长霍斯特·泽霍费尔——此人也是与默克尔联合的相对保守的巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟的领袖——
expects a tough challenge in this fall’s regional elections from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
预计今年秋季的地区选举中，极右翼政党德国新选择党(AfD)将会对默克尔构成严峻挑战。
That means he wants to get tough on immigrants,
这也意味着他有意采取强硬的移民措施，
including his plan to allow German police to turn away migrants at the border if they have already registered in another E.U. country.
例如，他已经计划允许德国警方在边境拒绝已经在另一个欧盟国家注册的移民入境。
For Merkel, this undermines the principle of E.U. burden-sharing
对默克尔而言，此举将会破坏欧盟有难同当的原则，
by forcing southern countries like Italy and Greece to take in more than their share of migrants.
因为这样一来，南边的意大利和希腊等国就要接收超额的移民。
But if Merkel fires Seehofer, his party will leave her coalition and she will no longer have a majority of seats in Parliament.
问题是，如果默克尔解雇泽霍费尔，泽霍费尔的政党将会离开她的联盟，她也将无法再拥有议会的多数席位。
That could mean new elections—and polls suggest her party is even less popular now than in 2017.
这就意味着可能需要重新选举——民调显示，其政党现在的受欢迎程度还不如2017年。
Merkel may well survive this latest challenge.
默克尔很可能会熬过这次挑战。
Seehofer knows a government collapse followed by new elections will only strengthen his far-right rivals in Bavaria.
泽霍费尔深知，随着重新选举而来的政府垮台只会让他在巴伐利亚党内的极右翼对手更加强大。
And Merkel still has solid-looking support within her own party and a national approval rating at 50%.
而默克尔在其党内的地位尚未被动摇，其全国支持率也仍有50%。
Asylum applications in Germany fell from about 720,000 in 2016 to 200,000 in 2017.
德国难民庇护申请的数量也已经从2016年的72万件下降到2017年的20万件。
Despite President Trump’s false claim to the contrary, crime in Germany stands at its lowest level since 1992.
此外，尽管特朗普总统做出了相反的虚假声明，德国的犯罪率已经降低到1992年以来的最低水平。
But this is the wrong time for a weakened Merkel.
然而，对于势力已经有所减弱的默克尔难说，这一切发生的不是时候。
At home, divisions within her coalition will embolden the far-right opposition to push harder on migration.
就国内而言，其联盟内部的分歧将会助长极右反对派在移民问题上采取更加强硬的措施。
In Europe, she wants leaders to consider a blocwide solution at a June 28 summit.
就整个欧洲而言，她希望各国领导人能在6月28日的峰会上针对难民问题考虑整体解决方案。
But with Italy’s new government turning away boatloads of desperate people,
然而，随着意大利新政府将一船又一船绝望的难民拒之门外，
the migration issue is entering a new and dangerous phase in European politics.
欧洲政治中的移民问题已经上升到了危险的新高度。
And it comes just as Merkel, the leader best able to force compromise, is in the weakest position to forge one.
然而，此时正值默克尔，这位最擅长强行促成让步的领袖处于最不利的地位。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
