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Korea expert Victor Cha on the big summit
韩国问题专家车维德就金特会发表看法
By Joseph Hincks/Seoul
文/（首尔）约瑟夫·亨克斯
HAD VICTOR CHA BEEN NOMINATED AS U.S. ambassador to South Korea,
如果提名车维德担任美国驻韩大使，
he might have spent his spring preparing for the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
这个春天，他或许都将在为金特会做准备。
But the former Bush Administration official was dropped as a candidate in January
然而，在反对对朝鲜政权采取先发制人的军事行动后，
after voicing opposition to preemptive military action on the regime.
这位前布什政府官员在今年1月被取消了候选人资格。
He tells TIME about his expectations for the summit.
日前，他对本刊倾诉了他对这次峰会的期望。
South Korean President Moon Jaein credited Trump’s “maximum pressure” for bringing Kim to the negotiating table.
韩国总统文在寅表示，促使金正恩走上谈判桌的是特朗普的“最大压力”政策。
Do you think this policy of heavy sanctions was a key driver?
在您看来，特朗普的严厉制裁政策真的起到了关键作用吗？
I do. In 2017 they were able to get more economic pressure on the regime than it’s ever felt before.
我认为起到了。2017年，他们对朝鲜政权施加的经济压力之大堪称前所未有。
I was always of the view that that policy would work,
我一直都认为这项政策会奏效，
because North Korea doesn’t tend to lash out militarily when they feel economic pressure.
因为感受到了经济压力的朝鲜往往不会采取军事行动。
They want to come to the negotiating table and see how they can get that pressure taken off.
他们会想走上谈判桌，看看如何才能消除这种压力。
Is the White House correct to say the Obama Administration’s policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea failed?
白宫说，奥巴马政府对朝实施的“战略耐心”策略失败了，这种说法对吗？
We had a period of eight years where the North Korea missile and nuclear problem got exponentially worse.
曾经有八年的时间，朝鲜的导弹及核问题一直是呈指数级恶化态势的。
One could argue that it was the fault of the policy.
你可以说，这种局面，错在政策。
One could also argue that the North Koreans had a very clear plan
也可以说朝鲜的计划是非常明确的，
and that there was nothing the Obama Administration could have done to take them off that course.
问题在于朝鲜政权在他们的道路上走了太远，奥巴马政府已经无能为力。
I think there’s credibility to that second argument.
我认为第二个说法是比较可靠的。
This is just not an issue historically to bet on if you are looking for a win.
从过去的经验来看，如果你想赢的话，这根本就不是一个适合打赌的话题。
There’s a theory Kim is an enlightened reformer looking for a way to do things differently. Do you buy that?
有一种说法说金正恩是一位开明的改革者，他不过是在另辟蹊径而已。您认同这种说法吗？
People are entitled to that theory, but there’s a very clear, systematic approach he has been taking,
人们有权持这种看法，但他采取的方式一直是比较清晰、系统的，
which is to go full bore over the past two years on the nuclear weapons program.
那就是，过去两年，全力以赴发展核力量。
Kim declared it complete in December, and they feel like they’re now secure with this capability.
去年12月，金正恩宣布导弹防御系统已经部署完毕，现在，他们觉得可以高枕无忧了。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
