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The Fed raised rates nine times in total, and four times in 2018, before pausing this year.
2015年12月美国启动本轮加息周期至今年暂停加息为止，美联储已经9次加息，2018年就加了4次。
This move is seen by many as a recalibration to help the economy remain on track, not the start of a cycle that will return rates to rock bottom.
在许多人看来，降息都只是为避免经济脱轨而进行的一次调整，而非让利率重回谷底这一周期的开始。
Yet in cutting now, the Fed is effectively ending its campaign to put economic policy back to normal.
然而，通过这次降息，美联储无异于放弃了让经济政策回归正常的努力。
The shift confirms that interest rates will be much lower from now on, leaving the economy in a much more fragile state.
此次调整也证实，从现在起，利率将大幅下行，美国经济将陷入比当下还要脆弱得多的处境。
After years of increases, interest rates remain historically low
经过多年的加息，利率仍处于历史低位，
and economic output, while growing, has hovered at a disappointing 2 percent for most of the past decade as population aging
随着人口逐渐老龄化，我国的经济产出虽然有所增长，但过去10年大部分时间的增长率都徘徊在2%这一不尽人意的水平，
and slow productivity gains weigh down its potential.
而生产率提高缓慢也妨碍了其潜力的发挥。
Inflation also remains mired below the Fed’s goal.
通货膨胀率也没有达到美联储的预期目标。
The Fed’s target interest rate stands between 2.25 and 2.50 percent, roughly half of its 5.25 percent level before the financial crisis,
美联储的目标利率在2.25%~2.50%之间，大致为金融危机前的5.25%这一水平的一半，
leaving the central bank with limited room to act in the event of a recession.
倘若经济出现衰退，央行的施展空间将十分有限。
“It’s much more fragile,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said of the economy,
谈及国家经济形势时，“致同国际”首席经济学家戴安·斯旺克表示：“比预期脆弱得多，”
explaining that consumers and businesses should be “euphoric” this late in a cycle but are not.
他解释说，当下，经济周期已经接近尾声，消费者和企业却并没有“欣快”之感。
That reflects “the uncertainty, and the scars — we still have scars from the crisis,” she said.
这反映了“经济形势不明朗和伤疤——金融危机留下的伤疤至今都未消退，”她说.
The stock market has gyrated over the past year on worries about Mr. Trump’s trade wars,
过去一年，鉴于对特朗普的贸易战，中国经济增速放缓，
a slowdown in China and the prospect of the Fed pushing through more rate increases.
以及美联储可能进一步加息的重重忧虑，股市也出现了波动。
Consumers pulled back their spending late last year as uncertainties mounted, a sign of how susceptible they might be to any downturn.
去年年底，随着不确定性增加，消费者纷纷缩减支出，这一现象表明，任何程度的经济低迷都可能冲击到他们。
The central bank is paying attention to that vulnerability.
央行已经开始重视消费者的这一弱点。
Following signaling by policymakers, investors anticipate that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point this month and once more this year.
政策制定者发出信号后，投资者们预计，美联储本月的降息幅度可能为25个基点，今年可能还会二次降息。
Fed officials expect to eventually resume raising rates, based on their June economic projections,
美联储官员预料他们终将恢复加息，因6月份的经济预测显示，
which show a rebound in 2021 and a slightly higher Fed funds rate over the longer run.
2021年美国经济将出现反弹，从长期来看，美国联邦基金利率也将出现小幅上升。
But many analysts say it is unlikely that the Fed will lift again before the economy tips into a recession.
然而，许多分析师都表示，除非陷入经济衰退，否则美联储已经不太可能再次加息。
That would make the current rate setting this business cycle’s peak.
倘若真的陷入经济衰退，当前利率就将成为本轮经济周期的峰值。
“We think we’re in the beginning of the end,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of United States Rates Strategy at Societe Generale.
“我们认为，我们已经进入本轮经济周期的最后阶段，”法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管苏帕德拉·拉贾帕表示。
Her team expects a downturn, and further rate cuts, in 2020.
她的团队预计，2020年，美国经济将出现下滑及进一步降息。
Even if it keeps a recession at bay, the Fed is working against a perilous backdrop.
即便美联储阻止了经济衰退，也要在十分惊险的形势下完成这一举措。
The central bank is tasked with maintaining full employment and stable inflation, which it defines as price gains around 2 percent.
央行肩负着保持充分就业和通胀稳定的任务，而其对稳定的定义为物价上涨幅度在2%左右。
That’s enough to fend off economy-harming deflation.
这些就足以抵御有害于经济的通货紧缩的影响了。
Policymakers have yet to hit their price goal sustainably:
政策制定者仍未能以可持续的方式实现他们的物价目标：
Their preferred inflation gauge came in at just 1.5 percent in the year through May.
在截至5月的一年中，他们的核心通胀指标仅为1.5%。
Officials have been banking on continued economic growth to push wages and prices up —
官员们一直指望持续的经济增长能够推动工资和物价上涨——
so any slowdown could ensure they miss their goal, denting their credibility.
因此，任何程度的经济放缓都必然会令他们的希望落空，动摇他们的可信度。
“On the basis of inflation alone, I could feel confident in arguing for a couple of rate cuts before the end of the year,”
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯·埃文斯 7月16日表示：
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on July 16.
“仅就通胀而言，我敢肯定地说，年底前还会出现一两次降息。”
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
