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Fed Is Closing In On First Rate Cut Since 2008 Crisis.
美联储即将迎来金融危机后的首次降息
By Jeanna Smialek
文/吉安娜·施密亚勒克
The Federal Reserve this week will most likely cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, when the economy was mired in a deep recession,
由于中央银行试图阻止美国一直颇为强劲的经济增长放缓，
as the central bank tries to keep a record economic expansion from petering out.
美联储本周很可能迎来2008年经济陷入严重衰退以来的首次降息。
The expected change, while likely to be small, will end an era of gradual rate increases
预计此次降息幅度不会很大，但仍将终结渐进加息的时代——
intended to return the economy to a more “normal” state in the wake of the Great Recession,
在此之前，为拯救经济，使经历了“大衰退”的美国经济恢复“正常”，
when the Fed slashed rates to near zero as it tried to rescue the economy.
美联储已将利率降至接近于零的低位。
The Fed’s approach has largely worked —
这一举措大致已经奏效——
the United States economy is growing, unemployment is at a 50-year low and wages are slowly rising.
美国经济已呈增长之势，失业率降至50年来最低水平，工资水平也已徐徐上涨。
But a rate cut at this moment in the cycle sends a signal: The current economy could be as good as it gets.
然而，在当前这样良好的经济形势下降息无异于释放了这样一个信号：当前经济或已触顶。
The Fed’s move on Wednesday may cheer President Trump,
美联储周三的这一举措或许能令特朗普总统感到些许快慰，
who has jawboned the central bank for a year over its 2018 rate increases,
因央行2018年加息一事，这一年来，特朗普一直在对央行施压，
saying the economy would have gone up “like a rocket” had the Fed not gotten it wrong.
声称若不是美联储犯了错，美国经济会“像火箭一样”腾飞。
“The Fed acted too soon. I turned out to be right, they acted too soon and too violently,”
“美联储加息加得太仓促了。事实证明我是对的，他们确实过于仓促，过于猛烈了，”
Mr. Trump said on Friday at the White House.
特朗普周五在白宫说道。
But the Fed, which operates independently of the White House, is likely to make a move driven by precaution, not politics,
然而，运作独立于白宫的美联储采取这一行动的考量可能是为了预防而非政治因素，
as it tries to inoculate the economy against the harmful effects of slowing global growth and Mr. Trump’s trade war.
因其试图令美国经济免受世界经济增长放缓和特朗普贸易战的不利影响。
While the United States economy continues to chug along, cracks are beginning to show.
尽管美国经济当下依然强劲，裂痕已经开始显现。
Manufacturing gauges, which often lead the rest of the economy, are slumping across the world.
就全球范围来看，生产指标，通常带动着其他经济部门，都已陷入衰退。
Business investment and confidence have suffered under Mr. Trump’s trade spats and tariffs.
商业投资和市场信心纷纷受到了特朗普的贸易争端和关税政策的冲击。
A potent recession indicator is flashing red — rates on 10-year bonds have been lower than those on 3-month government securities,
强有力的经济衰退指标已经亮起红灯——10年期国债的利率一直低于3月期国债的利率，
a sign that investors are pessimistic about the future.
表明投资者并不看好美国经济的未来。
The effect of Mr. Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut is waning and businesses report that they are holding off on expanding,
特朗普签署的1.5万亿美元的减税法案的效力正在衰减，各企业纷纷报告他们已推迟扩张，
in part because of concern about global economic growth and a protracted trade dispute between the United States and China.
部分原因在于对全球经济增长的担忧以及美国和中国之间旷日持久的贸易争端。
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy,
周五公布的数据显示，国内生产总值(GDP)——衡量一个经济体生产的商品和服务价值总和最广泛的指标——
rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to data released on Friday.
第二季度增速为2.1%。
That is a decent pace, but it shows the economy is reverting to normal after a 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter.
这一增速还算强劲，但也表明美国经济已从第一季度3.1%的增速恢复正常。
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been signaling a possible rate cut,
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直在暗示可能降息，
telling lawmakers this month that “the uncertainties around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook”
本月早些时候，他对议员们表示，“全球增长和贸易的不确定性依然笼罩着我国经济的前景，”
and that the Fed would act as needed to sustain the economic expansion.
美联储将采取必要的行动维持经济的继续扩张。
Anticipation of a cut may already be providing a slight economic jolt by lowering consumer interest rates and sending stocks soaring,
对降息的预期或已推动美国经济出现轻微提振，在降低消费利率的同时刺激了股市的大涨，
giving companies more reason to invest and consumers an extra nudge to buy a house or a car.
为企业提供了更充分的投资理由的同时赋予了消费者更大的购车购房动力。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
