评论
打印
so the question is areas that have undergone this long term shift from one direction to another try to figure out what's making the change
他的问题是 不同的选区在各届大选中 在两党间来回变化 导致这些变化的因素有哪些?
there are a number of categories
有一些主要的原因
you can put this into generation replacement
例如 不同年代出生人群的更替
different generations vote differently
不同年代出生的人有不同的投票倾向
and as the older generation passes away the new generation arises
随着老一代的人离去 新一代的人出现
that can be significant
这种变化会非常明显
conversion is completely a different matter
人的理念转换是另一种原因
the Reagan Democrats
支持里根的民主党人
blue-collar workers union people
指的是工会里的蓝领工人
who had been very consistent Democratic voters
他们过去一直是民主党的支持者
many of those switched to Republican voting in the 1980s
却在20时间80年代转而支持共和党
that was not so much generation replacement as sort of conversion
这显然不是与一代人的更替有关 而是一种倾向的变化
migration is another factor
移民是另一个因素
when we look at fast growing, also fast shrinking areas
当我们观察那些人口迅速扩张 或者快速萎缩的地区
you've got people leaving
人们搬离这些地区
those who leave or not all going to be in the same situation
但无论这些居民离开与否 他们的投票倾向是不变的
many of the really declining counties in the Great Plains
在很多人口下降的县 如在大平原地区
very elderly populations
人口年龄非常大
as younger people have moved
随着年轻人搬离这些地区
so that changes the voting pattern in those counties
这些县的投票倾向也随之发生改变
many of the fast growing suburban fringe counties
很多位于城郊快速发展的县
you're attracting people
在吸引越来越多的居民
a lot of those counties are getting young couples
这些县吸引的主要是一些年轻的夫妻
and young couples with children tend to be a conservative voting group
有孩子的年轻家庭在投票上属于保守的人群
I believe that among married people McCain won the election
我想在结了婚的人群中麦凯恩是占优势的
if you just took married population
如果仅看他们在已婚人群中的支持率
not by a huge amount but I believe he won that cohort
即使不是领先很多 但我想他的支持率是更高的
if you take people in their 30's with young children
在30岁左右有孩子的人群中
that tends to be even a little bit more Republican voting
他们是较为倾向支持共和党的
and so those people are moving to these fast growing exurban counties
因此这些人移居到快速发展的城郊县
which leads them partly to have this more Republican voting pattern
就使得这些县更为地倾向于支持共和党
but it depends on what state you're in
但这也要具体看是在什么州
some states those suburban fringe counties are very Republican voting
有些州的城郊县的确非常支持共和党
now in the Bay Area we don't see it at all
但在旧金山湾区则完全没有这种现象
we saw it last election San Joaquin County, Stanislaus County
过去的选举中圣华金县 斯坦尼斯劳斯县也有这种现象
we could consider that as sort of the far suburban fringe of San Francisco
我们可以将这两个县 勉强看作旧金山的远郊
Republican voting but Democratic voting this election
过去它们支持共和党 但这届大选中都转向了民主党
but again a lot of political scientists do a lot of statistical analysis
很多研究政治的科学家做了很多相关的数据分析
they do a lot of polling
他们做了很多的民意调查
they run very careful regression analysis to try to tease out what are the causal factors
并进行仔细的回归分析 以寻找导致选情变化的原因
I read that literature
我读过相关的文献
but I don't have enough of a background in statistics to do much more than use it
但我在统计学上没有学术背景 所以我也只能看看结果
and it's just what I prefer to do is look at maps
所以我倾向于从地图中寻找答案
and it's not as rigorous
虽然这样没那么严谨
but there are patterns that you can see by looking at maps
但你的确可以从地图中看到一些联系
that you often don't see with other kinds of statistical techniques
这些联系可能是用其他统计工具发现不了的
I don't know how well I answered your question
不知道你是否满意我的回答
