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Outsourcing production by using cheap labor in the developing world has underpinned the global economy for decades.
数十年以来，通过发展中国家廉价劳动力来外包生产，这一现象一直为全球经济保驾护航。
But technology could be about to turn that on its head.
但科技或将扭转这种局面。
Research from the Overseas Development Institute focused on the example of furniture manufacturing in Africa.
海外发展研究所研究非洲的家具制造业。
In the next 15 to 20 years, robots in the U.S. are actually going to become much cheaper than Kenyan labor,
在未来15到20年内，美国的机器人实际上将比肯尼亚的劳动力便宜得多,
particularly in the furniture manufacturing industry.
特别是在家具制造业上。
So this means that around 2033, American companies will find it much more profitable to reshore production back,
这意味着到2033年左右，美国企业会发现在本国生产更有利可图，
which means essentially get all the jobs and production back from the developing countries to the U.S.
那么从根本上来讲，将发展中国家的就业和生产全部搬回美国。
And that obviously you know, can have very significantly negative effects for jobs in Africa.
很明显，这将对非洲就业产生极其严重的负面影响。
As robots are getting cheaper, people are getting more expensive.
随着机器人越来越廉价，人工越来越昂贵。
So the cost of a robot or the cost of a 3D printer, they're declining at similar levels, around 6 percent annually.
机器人或3D打印机的成本每年下降约6%。
So that's a significant decline whereas wages in developing countries are rising.
这是一个显著的下降，而发展中国家的工资却正在上涨。
By 2038, the ODI predicts it will be cheaper to make clothing in the United States using robots than to import it from Ethiopia.
到2038年，海外发展研究所预测在美国生产服装的价格要比从埃塞俄比亚进口便宜。
Last year, sports giant Adidas invested in automated plants in Germany and the United States, including using 3D printers to make these sneakers.
去年，体育巨头阿迪达斯投资德国和美国的自动化工厂，包括使用3D打印机制作运动鞋。
That has led to a loss of like 1,000 jobs in Vietnam until now and that's gonna be significantly increase in the future.
到目前为止，这种状况已经导致越南失去了大约1000个就业岗位，而且未来将大幅增加。
Adidas bosses say they do not envisage further large-scale reshoring of jobs.
阿迪达斯领导表示，他们还没有想过大规模恢复本国就业岗位。
But there is no doubting the challenges posed by automation to manual labor in developing countries. Some are fighting back.
但毫无疑问，自动化给发展中国家的体力劳动者带来了挑战，有些国家正在反击。
Kenyan firm Funkidz has invested heavily in computer-aided design and manufacturing of furniture.
肯尼亚“Funkidz”公司在计算机辅助设计和家具制造方面投入巨资。
Using these technologies, they've been able to achieve impressive growth and they've also expanded to regional markets like Rwanda and Uganda.
利用这些技术，他们取得了令人瞩目的增长，并且还将市场扩展到了卢旺达和乌干达等地区。
Funkidz CEO says the government needs to match her firm's enthusiasm for technology.
“Funkidz”的首席执行官表示，政府需要支持其公司对技术的热衷。
We have machines that sit idle because we don't have skilled people. These many people who need jobs, yes, we agree, but if they have no skill,
因为没有技术工人，许多机器闲置，我们也明白有很多人需要工作，但如果他们没有技能，
I would love to employ you, but you need a skill, otherwise you cannot operate our machines.
我很想聘用你，但你得有技术，不然你无法操控我们的机器。
So we are urging all institutions, government, please let's take this skills gap as a crisis.
所以我们敦促所有机构和政府，将技术差距看成是一种危机。
That call is echoed by the ODI report authors, who urge African governments to use the current window of opportunity
这一呼吁得到了海外发展研究所报告作者的支持，他们敦促非洲各国政府利用当前机会，
to build industrial capabilities and digital skills before the jobs crunch hits.
在就业危机来临之前，提升工业实力和数字化技能。
Henry Ridgwell, for VOA News London
VOA新闻，亨利·里格韦尔伦敦为您报道。
