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hey, welcome again to the geography of US presidential elections
欢迎再次回到美国总统大选地理学的课堂
our last session where we get to analyze the geographical patterns that were made evident last Tuesday night
我们的最后一课 将向你介绍上周二大选中出现的选情地理分布特征
we have here the Wikipedia map not quite ready to cover Missouri yet but it looks like Missouri will be a McCain's state
这是一幅来自维基百科的地图 只剩密苏里州的选情未画出 但我记得密苏里州是支持麦凯恩的
we certainly see some changes on this map from the most previous one a number of states picked up by the Democrats
从地图中可以看到今年选情与04年相比所发生的变化 好几个州在这次大选中转向了民主党
some of these states had been Democratic in the 2000 election so they are not too big of a change
他们当中有一些在2000年也曾支持民主党 所以算不上什么大变化
the real significant changes were Virginia and Indiana
最引人注目的变化是弗吉尼亚和印第安纳的转变
both states which had not gone for Democratic presidential candidates since the landslide year of 1964
这两个州是自1964年共和党获得压倒性胜利以来 第一次支持民主党候选人
so those are major changes
这是个主要的变化
North Carolina surprised quite a few people
一些人没想到北卡会泛蓝
Nevada, Colorado and Florida to some extent as well
内华达 科罗拉多和佛罗里达 也让人有点惊讶
one of the things to note is the one electoral vote in Nebraska which is associated with the congressional district around
值得一提的是 内布拉斯加独立的选举人票是掌握在划分好的国会区手上的
Nebraska and Maine the two states that can split their electoral votes that went for Obama the first time in the long time
只有内布拉斯加州和缅恩州的选举人票是可以分离的 奥巴马这一票 是民主党候选人
that Democratic presidential candidate has won anything in the Great Plain states here so that's somewhat significant
长久以来第一次在地处大平原的内布拉斯加获得支持 这也是值得注意的情况
one of the things to mention is that we've talked a bit about polling
我还要讲一讲之前曾提到过的民意调查
and certainly the pollsters did a good job particularly 5 38(.com)
民调家们这次干的漂亮 尤其是5 38.com（一民调预测网站)
some of you have talked to me about the site run by a former baseball statistician who evidently Nate Silver I believe is his name?
你们当中有人跟我讨论过这个网站 它由一个前棒球数据统计家所创立的 我还记得他的名字是 内特 斯尔文
from childhood he was fascinated by numbers and what he could do with them
他从小就酷爱数字 以及对数字的处理统计
he applied them to baseball
他曾把他的研究运用到棒球比赛上
now he's applying them to politics and evidently he's gonna continue to do so
现在又把他们运用于政治 很显然 他现在乐此不疲
and people are going to be watching that site very carefully
而人们也持续地对他的网页密切关注
using very sophisticated statistical techniques to tease out this sort of patterns
它用来非常高端的数据处理技术来筛选出预测结果
