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The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is a phenomenon
极端恐怖组织ISIS的活动
so terrible and shocking it seems impossible.
令人发指到了无以复加的地步
It controls an area the size of the United Kingdom, commits mass atrocities,
他们控制了伊拉克一片与英国相当的土地，实施了大规模的暴行
and launches terror attacks abroad.
不仅如此，他们还在海外发动了多次恐怖袭击
To understand ISIS, it helps to tell the story of its rise.
要想了解ISIS这一组织，我们有必要了解它逐步壮大的过程
That story begins far away and many years before the group existed.
故事还得从多年前说起，那时这一组织还没有成立
In 1979 the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan to defend a puppet dictator against rebels.
1979年，前苏联入侵阿富汗，帮助阿富汗的傀儡政权镇压反动派
Young men from the MidEast flock to join the rebels.
许多中东的青年人都加入到了武装反动斗争中
Many see it as a religious struggle, and some develop extremist views.
许多人将这一战争视为捍卫宗教的战争，也有一些人持有更为极端的思想
Among them is a well-educated young Saudi named Osama bin Laden.
在这群年轻人中，有一名受过良好教育的沙特青年，他就是奥萨马·本·拉登
Also in Afghanistan is a semi-literate former street thug from Jordan named Abu Musab Zarqawi.
来到阿富汗的还有一名受过初等教育，曾经是一名街头小混混的约旦青年——阿布·穆萨布·扎卡维
They do not get along, and never will,
这两人合不来，并且永远都不会合得来
but will create the groups we today know as al-Qaeda and as ISIS.
但他们即将创立我们今天所谓的“基地组织”和“ISIS”
The Soviets withdraw in 1989 and the Arab fighters return home.
到了1989年，苏联从阿富汗撤兵，圣战斗士们也回到了自己的家乡
Bin Laden grows al-Qaeda into a global network to continue the struggle against Islam's enemies.
为了继续与伊斯兰教的敌人斗争，本·拉登把基地组织发展成了全球网络
Zarqawi forms his own group, but it fizzles.
扎卡维也发展了自己的组织，但以失败告终
Both men later return to Afghanistan, now ruled by the Taliban.
两人后来又回到了阿富汗，此时，阿富汗已经落入了塔利班的手里
On September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacks America from its base there.
就在2001年9月11日，基地组织的美国分部在美国发动了恐怖袭击
The US invades Afghanistan and bin Laden flees to Pakistan.
事后美国入侵阿富汗，本拉登逃往巴基斯坦
Zarqawi, still obscure, flees to a remote and lawless corner of Iraq.
彼时仍籍籍无名的扎卡维则逃到了伊拉克一个山高皇帝远的角落
Two years later, the US does something that will transform the Middle East
两年后，美国的一个举动即将改变整个中东的局势
and set the stage for ISIS
同时也为ISIS的上台创造了条件
The Americans topple Saddam Hussein's secular, Sunni dictatorship and disbands the Iraqi army.
美国推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因的逊尼派政权，同时遣散了伊拉克的军队
Thousands of Sunni Iraqi soldiers, angry and unemployed, join the insurgency.
成千上万的伊拉克逊尼派的斗士失去了工作，他们于怒火中加入了叛乱
Jihadist groups, also Sunni, see this as a repeat of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan,
圣战组织，也是逊尼派人士，将美国入侵伊拉克看作是苏联入侵阿富汗的重演
and again flood in to fight. Zarqawi is among them.
也纷纷加入了战斗，扎卡维就是其中之一
Zarqawi's group becomes Iraq's most ruthless.
扎卡维的组织成了伊拉克最凶狠的势力
He especially attacks Shia, Iraq's majority, deliberately sparking a Sunni-Shia civil war.
他尤其针对伊拉克的少数派——什叶派，故意挑起逊尼派-什叶派内战
By 2004, Zarqawi is a jihadist superstar.
到2004年，扎卡维俨然已经成了圣战组织的英雄人物
Al-Qaeda, isolated and weakened,
基地组织，由于受到了排挤和削弱
attempts to bolster its image by forming an alliance with Zarqawi's group,
想与扎卡维的组织结盟，从而提升自己的形象
which becomes known as al-Qaeda in Iraq.
就是这样，基地组织逐渐在伊拉克发展成了今天我们看到的“基地组织”
But in 2006, Iraq's Sunnis rise up against Zarqawi, and the US kills him in an air strike.
然而，2006年，伊拉克的逊尼派开始反叛扎卡维，扎卡维在一次空袭中被美军杀死
Over the next few years, al-Qaeda in Iraq is largely defeated.
接下来的几年里，伊拉克境内的基地组织受到了重创
The Americans withdraw in 2011 from an Iraq that finally looks stable
2011年，美国从伊拉克撤军时，伊拉克终于有了点儿稳定的样子
In 2011, the Arab Spring spreads across the Middle East.
同年，阿拉伯之春运动席卷了整个中东
In Syria, Bashar al-Assad cracks down violently on protesters.
在叙利亚，巴沙尔·阿萨德对其反叛者进行了疯狂镇压
They eventually fire back, leading to civil war.
反叛者们最终发动反击，叙利亚内战由此爆发
Assad fears the world will intervene against him.
害怕其他国家会干预其政权的阿萨德
So he releases jihadists in large numbers from Syrian prisons,
释放了大批关押在叙利亚的圣战分子
tinging the rebels with extremism and making it harder for foreigners to back them.
并给他们灌输极端思想，让其他国家难以支持这些反叛者
Back in Iraq, what little remains of Zarqawi's group
再回到伊拉克，扎卡维的残余势力
is still allied with al-Qaeda but now known as the Islamic State in Iraq.
如今仍旧和基地组织联系在一起，但基地组织已经改名为“伊拉克伊斯兰国”
It's led by a bookish religious scholar who calls himself Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
其头领是一位迂腐的宗教学者，他自称“阿布·巴克尔·巴格达迪”
In early 2012, Baghdadi sends a top deputy to Syria
2012年年初，巴格达迪派出了一名高级代表，前往叙利亚
to start a new al-Qaeda branch to fight alongside the rebels: Jabhat al-Nusra.
组建基地组织的分部，支援叙利亚的反叛组织“救国阵线”
Baghdadi also attacks a series of prisons in Iraq.
巴格达迪还袭击了伊拉克的多个监狱
They free former jihadists and recruit new ones, growing stronger.
释放前圣战分子，并招募新的圣战分子，其势力不断壮大
In April 2013, Baghdadi announces he is taking control of all al-Qaeda-allied forces in Syria and Iraq.
就在2013年4月，巴格达迪宣布，由他接管叙利亚和伊拉克境内所有与基地组织结盟的势力
His group expands into Syria, becoming the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
如今，他的势力已经发展到了叙利亚，变成了“伊拉克和大叙利亚伊斯兰国”，简称“ISIS”
Al-Qaeda rejects Baghdadi's power grab and, in 2014, formally exiles him.
基地组织不接受巴格达迪的夺权，并于2014年将其正式驱逐出境
The two jihadist groups, long at odds, are now at war.
两个历来不合的圣战组织终于兵戎相见
ISIS grows powerful in Syria, in part because Assad tolerates its rise,
ISIS之所以能在叙利亚发展壮大，部分原因是阿萨德对此采取了容忍态度
which he does because it divides his enemies within Syria,
他之所以这么做，是因为ISIS能够分化他在叙利亚的敌对势力
and foreign powers are too focused on ISIS now to worry about Assad.
同时，也是因为外国势力忙着对付ISIS，所以并不把他放在心上
By June 2014, ISIS has built an army in Syria,
到了2014年6月，ISIS已经在叙利亚发展了自己的军队
and it launches a military-style invasion into Iraq.
并且对伊拉克发动了军事侵略
The Iraqi army, weakened by corruption, folds with little fight.
被腐败削弱的伊拉克军队毫无还手之力
Many Sunnis are tired of their Shia-dominated and increasingly authoritarian government,
许多逊尼派人士，受够了越来越专横的什叶派政府的控制，
and welcome or at least tolerate ISIS's arrival.
对ISIS的到来表示欢迎，至少不反对
Within days, ISIS controls a third of Iraq and a big part of Syria.
不日，ISIS就控制了伊拉克1/3的地盘以及叙利亚的大部分地区
ISIS's goal is more audacious than anything imagined by al-Qaeda:
ISIS的野心远远超出了基地组织的想象：
to revive the ancient Caliphate and expand it to encompass all Muslims.
他们企图恢复古代的阿拉伯帝国，扩充势力，统治所有穆斯林
It earnestly believes its holy war will then bring about the apocalypse as foretold in scripture.
他们坚信，圣战能够实现教义中预言的启示
Thousands of Muslims, mostly from the Middle East and from Europe, flock to join the group.
成千上万的穆斯林，大部分来自中东和欧洲，纷纷加入这一组织
Some join for religious reasons, but many are just disillusioned or angry,
有些人加入ISIS是为了信仰，然而，不少人都只是出于绝望或是愤怒
and feel that ISIS offers them answers and a purpose.
觉得ISISI能够给他们一个答案，给他们的人生赋予意义
ISIS quickly overreaches.
很快，ISIS扩张过了头
That August, it invades Kurdish territory in Iraq and Syria,
2014年8月，他们入侵了伊拉克和叙利亚境内的库尔德部落
sparking counter-attacks from better-organized Kurdish forces.
遭到了比他们更加训练有素的库尔德部队的反击
It launches a genocide against Iraqi Yazidis
他们还对雅兹迪人发动了种族清洗活动
and murders the American journalist James Foley on camera,
并杀害了当时负责拍摄的美国记者James Foley
outraging the world and provoking an American-led air campaign against it.
这一行为引起了全世界的震怒，同时也引发了以美国为首发动的空袭
ISIS can't withstand the onslaught, and loses more than a fifth of its territory.
面对猛烈的打击，ISIS无力反抗，失去了1/5的地盘
In response, it begins launching increasingly spectacular terror attacks abroad:
为了报复，ISIS开始在海外发动越来越极端的恐怖袭击
Tunisia, Kuwait, Sinai and then Paris.
先是突尼斯、科威特、西奈，接着是巴黎
So-called lone wolves inspired by ISIS propaganda also launch attacks,
由ISIS煽动起来的所谓的“孤独的狼”也发动了多次袭击
though they're often amateurish and less effective.
虽然他们的袭击通常比较不成熟，效率也较低
Eventually, ISIS will lose its state.
ISIS终将失去它所有的势力范围
It is simply too weak, has no allies or outside funders, and is surrounded by enemies.
他们太不堪一击，缺乏盟友，在外没有资金来源，还四面树敌
But ISIS will respond by reverting to what it was before,
然而，不甘被消灭的ISIS还是会变成原来的样子
as AQI: an insurgency and a terror group still capable of horrifying violence.
以伊拉克集反动和恐怖于一体的基地组织的形式存在，他们还是有能力发动骇人听闻的暴力袭击
In that form, it could be around for years.
就这种形式而言，他们短时间内并不会消失
