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You are working at UIBE
您是在北京对外经贸大学工作?
Yes - I am teaching a course on climate change
是的,我在教授一门气候变化课程
it is a one month course - 32 credit hours - a pretty intensive effort
这是一个为期一个月课程，32学分，安排得相当密集
it is a lot of information to try and get across in a month
对于一个月的课程来说，信息量很大
We have had quite a lot of rain this month in Beijing
这个月北京下了很多雨啊
There is no question that as the planet gets warmer we will see more
随着地球变暖, 毫无疑问, 我们将会看到更多雨天
It raises the metabolism of the weather systems
它提高了天气系统的新陈代谢
the storms get larger, the droughts get longer, the rain gets more intense
风暴会更大, 干旱会更长, 雨会下得更加激烈
So yes, this is what we have ahead of us.
所以是的, 这就是我们即将面临的情况。
Whether this particular year is caused by climate change nobody can say that because it is too short a time period.
这一年气象是否是由气候变化导致的，没人能说准, 因为时间太短。
But we clearly see temperatures this year - every month this year has set records around the world in terms of summer heat
但我们能清楚地看到今年的气温——今年每个月世界各地都创造了暑热记录
China Daily mentioned this year that the rainfall in northern China has been significantly higher than in previous years.
《中国日报》提到，今年中国北方的降雨明显高于往年。
That is the kind of thing we expect there will be more of.
而且我们还将会看到更多。
These storms are difficult - they do a lot of damage in cities
这些风暴很危险, 它们会给城市带来很多危害。
They also do a lot of damage in agricultural communities because they destroy the crops.
它们也在迫害农业社区, 因为它们破坏庄稼。
Look at what happened in the Yangtze River Valley just a few weeks ago - and you realise the damage these kinds of storms can do.
看看几周前发生在长江河谷的风暴，你就会意识到它们可能会带来多大的伤害。
I am starting with just what is the basic science
我只是从最基本的科学开始讲起。
To talk about that I had to talk about modelling and statistics and how we estimate what is going to happen in the future.
要谈论它, 我不得不得谈论模型和统计，以及我们如何估算未来将会发生什么。
The uncertainties involved - the uncertainties in the science
这其中所涉及的不确定性——科学的不确定性
Then we talk about the effects we predict from these models - which is changing all the time because the more we look the more we see different aspects of the problem.
然后我们探讨从这些模型中所能预测出来的影响——当然这些影响是不断变化的, 因为我们研究得越多,越能看到问题的不同方面。
Track Two
What is happening in the Arctic is a significant change in the whole ecological structure正在北极所发生的一切变化对整个生态结构都具有重大的影响
It affects the people who live on the Arctic coast
它影响着住在北极海岸的居民
It affects the wildlife - everybody talks about the polar bears - the most dramatic example
它影响着野生动物——举个最引人注目的例子，每个人都在谈论的北极熊
It affects the fish - it affects the food the fish eat - it just changes everything as it gets warmer.
它影响鱼——影响鱼吃的食物——因为变暖，一切事情都被改变了。
The ice disappears
冰消失了
The melting ice in Greenland is turning out to be a much bigger phenomenon than we thought
正在格陵兰上演的冰川融化现象比我们想象的要严重得多
The cold water runoff has an effect on ocean currents
融化的冰水的流径影响着洋流
The interrelations, the detailed interrelations of the whole environmental system
of our planet are just not known well enough to see all the connections
由于我们对这些关联, 对整个地球环境系统内部详细的关联认识得不够充份，我们还看不清这其中所有的联系。
Until suddenly we get some data that shows something we did not know
直到突然我们获得了一些数据, 显示出了我们不知道的东西
The ice in Greenland melting - this means more cold water coming into the oceans?
格陵兰岛的冰川融化——这意味着更多的冰水将流入海洋?
It is affecting more than temperature - it is affecting the whole system
这影响的不只是气温，而是整个系统
The water around Greenland drives the whole ocean current system and the change right now is driving the ocean currents more dramatically because there is more cold water coming in.
格陵兰岛周围的水驱动着整个洋流系统，而目前由于冷水的持续流入，这一驱动力正在加剧。
When you reach the point where there isn't enough ice in Greenland - some people think the ocean currents will simply stop
有些人认为，只要达到一定程度，当格陵兰岛没有足够的冰了，洋流会停止。
That instead of these great flows around the planet the oceans will be stagnant - probably not a very good thing
认为海洋将不受这些强大水流的影响而保持停滞——这可能不是一件好事
People think that (today's Arctic) is going to be the most inhabitable part of the planet in 50 to 75 years time.
人们认为(现在的北极) 在50到75年后将成为地球上最宜居的地区
The temperate areas like the US are going to be too hot and a lot of it will turn into desert.
现在的温带地区，如美国，将会变得太热, 其中很多地区甚至会变成沙漠
