评论
打印
Indiana very reliably republican voting state
印第安纳一直是忠实的共和党支持者
Most polls show it still leaning McCain but not by much
虽然很多民调显示选民仍倾向麦凯恩，但他的优势已变得微弱
Missouri used to be a bellwether state used to be who wins Missouri wins the election
密苏里一直被认为是大选的风向标，曾有赢密苏里者赢大选的说法
Missouri is southern part mid-western
密苏里属南部地区中西部
S.t Louis suburbs pratically eastern in its voting patterns anyway
然而圣路易斯城郊的投票倾向完全属于东部模式
So it's pretty much neck and neck as well, Florida trending for Obama
因此两党在密苏里可谓势均力敌。佛罗里达州倾向于支持奥巴马
and a lot of surprises for a lot of people to see
这使很多人感到惊讶
North Carolina now trending in the democratic direction as well
北卡罗来纳州如今也倾向民主党
and that has something to do with its senatorial race as well as presidential race
这和该州的参议员竞选有点关系，与总统候选人本身也有关
just a few others, oh, Virginia and West Virginia
看看其他州的情况，弗吉尼亚，西弗吉尼亚
If ok this was made Virginia, West Virginia as a few days ago
这幅图中我们还能看到这两个州几天前的选情
Trending McCain, but just barely, it's narrowed way down
麦凯恩以微弱优势领先，但其优势非常小
and some of the polls now show that Obama ahead
有一些民调显示奥巴马领先
This is a historical if this would happen
这将具有历史意义
If this map were to play out
如果最终结果如地图所示
And if Virginia voted for Obama
如果弗吉尼亚选了奥巴马
And West Virginia voted for McCain
西弗吉尼亚选了麦凯恩
This would be a real historical reversal
这将是一个历史性的逆转
It used to be that West Virginia was one of the most reliably democratic voting states
西弗吉尼亚曾是民主党最忠实的支持者之一
Unionized coal miners, democratic party
工会及矿工都倾向民主党
if you remember that 88 map
如果你还记得1988年的选情地图
when Dukakis won so few states
当年只有零星几个州支持杜卡基斯
he won West Virginia and won it pretty handily
但他赢下了西弗吉尼亚而且赢得轻而易举
Well, how do we explain the shift if it happens
若这种逆转真的发生，应如何解释?
Well, we can go back to Dave Leipe's Atlas
我们回到Dave Leipe's的地图集，
and look at the primary, The democratic primary and look at the Clinton vote there in red
看看初选的情况，民主党初选的情况，红色表示支持希拉里的地区，支持奥巴马的为绿色
and the Obama vote there in green, Obama, boy, he strike out in West Virginia
奥巴马真是在西弗吉尼亚杀出了一条血路
He hardly got any votes at all, I mean very low
当时他得票率很低
many of this counties 10% 15% maybe 20%
他在很多县的支持只有10%或者15%到20%左右
among the counties in Virginia same story but the eastern counties
他在弗吉尼亚的一些县支持率也很低，但在东部的县
whether they're the wealthy suburb counties like Loudoun county
无论是在富裕的郊县如劳登县
or poor African-American counties voting for Obama
还是在贫穷的非洲裔聚居地都支持奥巴马
