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Do you think we're currently in a bubble?
你认为目前经济处于泡沫期吗？
Do I think we're currently in a bubble?
我认为目前经济处于泡沫期吗？
Okay, so I'll give you two answers to this question.
对于这个问题，我给你两个答案
One, ask me questions that are useful to this audience,
一个是，针对在场观众有用的答案
cuz these people are here to learn how to start startups and I have in my head, like,
因为来这的人是要学习如何创业，对于是否处于泡沫期这个问题，
more data about that than anybody else.
我比其他人研究得都要深
And you're asking me the kind of questions a reporter does cuz
还有一套针对
they can't think of anything interesting to ask.
那些“吃饱了撑着的”记者的答案
But I will answer your question.
我来回答你的问题
There is a difference between prices merely being high and a bubble.
价格高和泡沫是有区别的
A bubble is a very specific form of prices being high,
泡沫是价高的一种特例
where people knowingly pay high prices for something in the hope
此时，人们明知价格过高
that they will be able to unload it later on some greater fool.
却还希望以更高的价格转手
Right? And that's what happened in the late 90s.
这就是90年代晚期出现的情况
Like, VCs knowingly invested in bullshit startups,
例如，当时风险投资人明知道所投资的创业公司很垃圾
thinking that they would be able to take those things public,
他们想着，只要这些垃圾公司上市
and unload them onto the retail investors before everything blew up.
他们只要能在事情败露之前，把股份脱手给散户就行了
And I was there, I was there for that, at the epicenter of it all.
我当时目睹了这一切
And that is not what's happening today.
当时的情况和现在不同
Prices are high, valuations are high.
价格高，估值高
But valuations being high does not mean a bubble.
估值高并不意味着泡沫
Every, every commodity has prices that go up and down in some sort of sine wave.
每样商品的价格都会不同程度地正弦式起起伏伏
Definitely, prices are high.
目前价格是高
And so we tell people, if you raise money,
我要警告大家，如果你这次筹到资金
don't think the next time you raise money it's gonna be so easy.
不要以为你下次还能轻松筹到资金
Who knows, maybe between now and then
谁能说得准呢，或许今后
the Chinese economy will have exploded and there's another giant disastrous recession.
中国经济先爆发式增长，然后进入大萧条呢
Who knows, assume the worst, but bubble, no.
谁说得准呢，要考虑到最差情况，但是目前绝不是泡沫期
