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Mark Zuckerberg will never get to bum around a foreign country.
马克·扎克伯格（Facebook创始人）不会无缘由地去国外旅行
He can, if he goes to a foreign country,
如果他出国了
it's either as a defacto state visit, or, like,
他要么是在进行正式访问
he's hiding out incognito at the George Cinc in Paris. Right?
要么是在巴黎微服私访
But he's never gonna get to just, like, backpack around Thailand if that's still what people do.
他不会当一个背包客，去泰国旅行，当然一般人是会这样的
Do people still backpack around Thailand?
现在还有人背包旅行吗？
Yes. Okay, well there, that's the first real sign of enthusiasm I've seen from this audience.
的确有人这么做，第一次看到同学们反应这么强烈
I should have given this talk in Thailand.
我该讲讲泰国那些事的
All right, he can do things that you can't do,
当然他做的一些事，你做不到
like charter jets to fly him to foreign countries, really big jets.
比如，坐私人飞机去国外
But success has taken a lot of the serendipity out of his life.
成功让他的生活失去了一些新奇
Facebook is running him as much as he is running Facebook.
他掌管着Facebook，同样Facebook掌管着他
And while it can be really cool to be in the grip of some project you consider your life's work,
能抓住机会找到可作为终身事业的工作的确很酷
there are advantages to serendipity.
新奇带来很多好处，这是其一
And among other things, it gives you more options to choose your life's work from.
此外，在终身事业上，你有了更多的选择
There's not even a trade-off here.
甚至都不用权衡
You're not sacrificing anything if you forego starting a startup at 20,
因为等到合适的年龄创业才更可能成功
cuz you'll be more likely to succeed if you wait.
所以20岁开始创业，也不损失什么
In the unlikely case that you're 20, like astronomically unlikely case,
在极少数情况下，在极少极少极少数情况下
that you're 20 and you have some side project that takes off like Facebook did.
在20岁的时候，会有像Facebook那样成功的项目
Then you face the choice of either running with it or not, and maybe it's reasonable to run with it.
创业一般般的话，就面临选择：是否继续经营下去，继续经营或许更合适一些
But usually the way startups take off is for the founders to make them take off.
是否开始创业，取决于创业者
It's gratuitously stupid to do that at 20.
20岁就开始创业是不明智的
So should you do it at any age?
在任何年龄都能创业吗？
I realize, I've made Starting a startup sound kind of hard.
我前面貌似把创业说的太难了
If I haven't, let me try again. Starting a startup is really hard.
如果没有的话，我再重申一遍，创业真的很难！！
What if it's too hard? What if you're not up to this challenge?
如果创业太难，你胜任不了，怎么办？
The answer is the fifth counter-intuitive point. You can't tell.
答案是反直觉的第五条：你不能说出来
Your life, so far, has given you some idea what your prospects might be,
从小你就被灌输着未来的理想职业是什么样的
if you wanted to become a mathematician, or a professional football player.
如果你想当数学家，会怎么怎么样，或是职业足球运动员，会怎么怎么样
Boy, it's not every audience you could say that to.
当然大家的童年愿望各不同
But unless you have had a very strange life, indeed, you have not done much that's like starting a startup.
除非你的生活比较奇特，否则你很少憧憬去创业
Meaning, starting a startup will change you a lot if it works out.
创业成功会极大地改变你的生活
So, what you're trying to estimate is not just what you are,
要尽力估计的不仅有“你是什么样的人”
but what you could become, and who can do that?
还有“你会成为什么样的人”“谁能胜任”
Well, not me, for the last nine years, it was my job to try and guess whether people would.
过去的九年，我的工作是猜测人们是否…
Guess is, I wrote predicted here and it came out as guess.
我这里写的是“预测”，我说出来的却是“猜测”
That's a very informative Freudian slip.
不小心说漏嘴了
Seriously, it's easy to tell how smart people are in ten minutes.
判断一个人是否聪明很简单
You know, hit a few tennis balls over the net and do they hit them back at you or into the net.
就像打几回合的网球，你把问题挥向他，看他能很好地回击给你还是触网失分
But, the hard part was, and the most important part was predicting how tough and ambitious they would become.
最困难最重要的部分是预测创业者会有多坚强，有多野心勃勃
