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Let me go back to the map here talk about the ideas behind it
我们回到之前的这幅地图，来研究研究它所隐藏的信息
What are the patterns does this map supposedly showing
我们能从这幅图推测出怎样的选举规律呢
Let's just take the map for a while as a given
假设我们对这幅地图没有异议
Let's just say ok we can accept there are red states and blue states
我假设我们接受这些蓝色州和红色州的表现方式
now later, I will try to dismantle that idea and show it's much more complicated
因为等会我要推翻这种规律，给你们讲些更复杂的
but let's just take the stereotype as it exists
现在先把这种规律当做存在
and let's ask what differentiate the red states and blue states other than voting
让我们来思考，在这些红色州和蓝色州之间，除了他们支持不同的政党
are there consistent features that separate this one block of United States from another block
还有什么内在特征使得美国分成了几个板块呢?
While certainly as that map I showed you earlier of the Untied States of Canada versus Jesusland
回忆我之前给你们看的那幅Jesusland的地图
which indicate religious attendance at the national scale is probably the best predictor of voting patterns
暗示我们，宗教也许是一个影响选民投票倾向的全国性因素
so those individuals who attend religious services more than weekly
那些每周至少参加一次宗教活动的民众
they form 16% of the electorate voted 65% for George Bush
占全体选民的16%，其中有65%把票投给了乔治布什（共和党）
those attending weekly 60% that's 27% of the electorate
每周一次宗教活动的人中有60%投给布什，他们占了全体选民的27%
a few times a month pretty much divided 51% voting for George Bush that's 14%
那些一个月只参加几次宗教活动的民众，有51%投票给布什，他们占全体选民的14%
several times a year now we have a strong Kerry lead
那些一年只参加几次宗教活动的民众明显更倾向于支持克里
42% voting for George Bush
他们当中只有42%的人把票投给乔治布什
and those who never attend religious services 37% voting for Bush
那些从不参加宗教活动的人只有37%支持布什
so this is one of the best predictors of voting behavior
所以，这是影响投票最重要的因素之一
Of course, you can see there would be plenty of people who attend more than once a week or of the other way,
当然，也有很多人即使一周参加一次以上宗教活动
and the same over here
也没有把选票投给布什
and that's not a total divide
宗教并不是一个绝对的影响因素
We're not talking about 80%,90%
我们讲的分化程度并没有到80%，90%
but we're talking about pretty significant divisions
但这种分化的确已经非常明显
and we can see this in other data that we can look at
我们还可以来看一些其他数据
And here's a map at the level of state if you look at the states it works but not nearly as well as you might expect
这里有一幅州级地图，你会发现这些州，可能你原来的语气不一样
so we have the least religious states and I should say it's really hard to get this information
我们可以从图中看到虔诚度最低的州，这里我要提是获取这些信息是很困难的
Sociologists of religion know that people aren't always completely honest about how often they attend religious service
研究宗教的社会学家知道，对于参加宗教活动频率这个问题，人们很少完全诚实地回答
and they tend to overestimated
他们总会夸大其辞
So there are a lot of technichs for trying to get a better handle on it
所以为了使数据更为真实，他们需要做很多处理
and actually you get quite varying maps they vary quite a bit from one survey to another
所以你经常看到情况不同的地图，根据不同调查的数据绘制出的地图总是不太一样
