评论
打印
My name is Martin Lewis
我叫马丁路易斯
I teach in the history department here in Stanford
我任教于斯坦福大学的历史系
Some of you have taken some of my other courses
你们当中一些人可能已经上过我的其他课程
I recognized some faces out there
我能认出一些面孔
in fact the gentleman in the front row actually, recommended I teach the class
事实上正是坐在前排的这位男士推荐我来教这门课程的
So we owe it to him so we have the class here today
因为他的提议，我们今天才能在这学习这门课
Those of you have taken my classes know that I love maps
上过我的课的同学都知道我很喜欢地图
The aspect of everything about maps
我喜欢地图的各个方面
I like the way they look I like the pattern they show
无论是它们的外观，还是他们表达信息的各种方式
And one thing I like about elections especially the U.S. Presidential Elections
我之所以喜欢研究选举，尤其是美国总统选举的其中一个原因
Is its wealth of maps the cartographic resources that come with it
就是因为有丰富的地图资源用于研究大选的情况
It is a lot to chew on
供我们细细咀嚼
Not just U.S. elections but other elections as well we find the same sort of thing
其实不仅是美国的选举，在其他国家的选举中我们也能找到大量的地图资源
And one pattern that we can generalize about
例如，我们能够看到
Is that for a country like Ukraine in 2004 has a stark geographic division
以2004年乌克兰选情为例，它有着明显的地理区划
With district over here voting 90 percent for Viktor Yonukovych
你们看到在地图西南部有Yonukovych支持率超过90%的选区
district over here up to 96 percent for Viktor Yushchenko
而在东北部有Yushchenko支持率超过96%的选区
You know there are some problems in that country
不过你们也知道的这个国家有点不正常
We've seen some problems in Georgia watch Ukraine, it could be much worse
我们知道乔治亚州也有类似情况，但与乌克兰对比之下，是小巫见大巫了
And we have the pro-Russian half of the country the eastern and northern half
乌克兰的亲俄派多在的东部和北部
Starkly divided from pro-western western half of country
与西部的亲西方派产生明显分歧
Another place where we've seen something quite similar is in Bolivia
来看看另一个也有着类似分歧现象的国家
I'm sorry the map is pretty fuzzy
不好意思，这幅地图有点模糊
But this is the election where Evo Morlas won
这次大选中莫拉莱斯最终获胜
In the highlands where the most population catch or Morlas speaking
在玻利维亚高原地区大部分选民都支持莫拉莱
You can see winning over 80,90 percent in many districts
可以看到他在这些地区的支持率有些高达80%甚至超过90%
And allow us with a few exceptions
不过也有一些例外
His opponent winning by equal numbers in Bolivia now is on the brink
他的竞争对手率在西部的边缘地区也获得同样高的支持
The more prosperous low lands in the east are pushing forward economy
相对繁荣的东部平原地区正在大力发展经济
Some people question the future of Bolivia
但有些民众对玻利维亚的未来忧心忡忡
United States, while, we've seen it before
这幅美国地图，我们之前看过
We saw in 1860 this map does not show at that well
这是1860年大选的选情地图可能不是很清楚
you can see a swath of states voting for Lincoln
北部有连成一片的州支持林肯
A swath of states in the south voting for John Breckinridge
而大多数南方的州则把选票投给了约翰·布莱金瑞奇
And the border states going different ways
你能看到属于不同阵营的州的地理分界
Where you can really see the election of 1860
你能由此大致了解1860年的选情
And again, I apologize for the map might be a little bit hard to read
我要再次表示抱歉地图可能很难看清
But if you go down to county level data
当我们研究县级选情的地图时
And what we will find is actually there were two parallel elections in Untied States that year
我们会发现那年美国实际上同时进行了2场大选
The Democratic Party has split basically over the supreme court's Dred Scott decision
最高法院对德雷德史考特案的判决成为了民主党分裂的导火索
The southern democrats walked out the convention
南部民主党人在推选总统候选人的会议中中途离场
So there were two democrats running Stephen Douglas and John Breckinridge
导致有两派民主党人参加总统大选分别是道格拉斯和约翰·布莱金瑞奇
Basically one running in the north and the other in the south
他们一位是北民主党推选的总统候选人，另一位则是南民主党推选的总统候选人
Lincoln representing the new Republican Party wasn't even in the ballot in the south
林肯代表新成立不久的共和党参选在南部一票都没得到
And these green counties in the south are sort of the remnants of the old Whig party
南部这些绿色的县是辉格党的残余势力的支持者
they call themselves the constitutional excuse me they call themselves the unions of party
他们新组建了一个名为宪政联合党的党派，他们称自己为党派的联合
And their platform is just basically keep the union
他们的政纲是维护联邦的统一
Let's not talk about slavery or these other sorts of problems
我们想淡化在奴隶制度以及其他问题上的矛盾
Although Lincoln only got votes in northern half of the country
尽管林肯只获得北部的选票
that's where the most population was he won
但由于大部分人口居住在北部，林肯因此获胜
here was a one-term congressman self-educated lawyer defeating a vice president
就这样，这位仅担任过一届国会议员自学成才的律师打败了这位美国副总统
the most powerful man in the senate and the former speaker of the house
他是参议院中最有权势的人，前任众议院议长
well, obviously that set up the civil war
很显然，这直接导致了美国的南北战争
