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New Trade Protectionism
新贸易保护主义
Although Barack Obama alarmed free traders last year with protectionist-sounding pronouncements on the campaign trail, such as one about the need to renegotiate NAFTA, optimists among them dismissed this as mere posturing designed to placate restive trade unions. Yet a decision by the White House to impose punitive tariffs (35% for the first year, falling by five percentage points a year, to 25% in the third year) on Chinese-made pneumatic tyres now raises serious doubts about Mr Obama's commitment to free trade.
尽管去年奥巴马以贸易保护者的口吻发表诸如需要再议北美自由协定类的声明警告自由贸易商，但他们中的乐观主义者将其仅仅看成是奥巴马为了抚慰焦燥不安的工会而故作姿态地讲话。然而，当前白宫决定对中国进口轮胎征收惩罚性关税（第一年征收35%，第二年征收30%，第三年征收25%）使得人们严重置疑奥巴马就自由贸易所作的承诺。
The duties are to be imposed on September 26th under a part of American trade law known as "Section 421". The American government argues that these tyres are being imported into America from China in "such increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause market disruption to domestic producers" of competing tyres.
(2009年)9月26日，美国将根据美国贸易法第“421号条款”施征惩罚性关税。美国政府争论说，这些从中国进口来的轮胎数量逐渐增加，这种情况将对国内有竞争力的轮胎生产商造成威胁和扰乱了市场。
America imported tyres worth $1.3 billion from China between January and the end of July this year. Under the terms of China's accession to the WTO in 2001，countries have the right to impose tariffs in response to a "surge in imports" from China. But there is always scope for dispute about what constitutes enough of an export surge to justify the use of tariffs, and China has already notified the WTO of its intention to file a case against America. It has also said that it is considering the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on American exports of car parts and chicken meat.
今年1月至7月底，美国从中国进口了价值13亿美元的轮胎。根据2001年中国人世条款，国家有权因为“进口商品激增”向中国征收关税。但是对怎样才算作出口激增而可以征收惩罚性关税并未有既定规章。中国已经将反击美国的意愿告知世界贸易组织。中国表示正在考虑对美国出口的汽车零件和鸡肉产品征收报复性关税。
Poultry and tyres sound like small change in the context of the economic relationship between the two big economies. But Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former head of the IMF's China desk, argues that the American action and Chinese retaliation may presage "more protectionist measures to come from both sides". He notes that China could retaliate much more broadly than by raising a few tariffs: it could, for example, supplement its implicit export subsidies，including an undervalued exchange rate, with more explicit measures to support its export industries and block imports. This could "easily ratchet up into a broader trade war and inflict economic damage on both countries".
从这两个大型经济体国家之间的经济关系来看，禽肉和轮胎事件好似微不足道。但是，康奈尔大学贸易政策学教授、国际货币基金组织中国区前负责人埃斯华·普拉萨德认为美国的行为和中国的报复行为可能预示“双方将采取更多的保护措施”。他指出中国可以做出范围更广的报复行为，而不仅仅是提高一些关税：例如，中国可以增补隐性出口补贴，包括对估值偏低的外汇率给予增补，以及采取明确措施支持出口工业并封锁进口。中美两国的行为“将很容易扩大贸易战争并对双方国家造成经济损害。”
The decision to use Section 421 is a disturbing one. John Veroneau, a lawyer and a former deputy trade representative, points out that this particular rule "doesn't require any finding of unfair trade practice by China. Chinese tyre exporters were not found to be doing anything wrong or illegal." This means that it is hard for the administration to pass off the decision as being about tougher enforcement of existing trade agreements, which has been the focus of Ron Kirk, the new American trade representative, since his appointment.
使用第421号条款的决定是个不明智的决定。约翰·韦罗克是名律师，之前担任过贸易副代表，他指出这种特殊规则“不需要发现中国任何的不公正的贸易行为，中国轮胎出口商没有做错事或有非法行为。”这就意味着放弃这个现存的贸易协定中最严厉的条款，对美国政府是很难的，而这也正是美国新任贸易代表自任命以来一直关注的焦点。
Mr. Obama's decision also marks a clear break with recent American policy. His predecessor, George Bush, had four opportunities to take such a step against China, but in each case chose not to do so. Mr. Veroneau, who worked on those cases, argues that "based on their negotiations with the Clinton Administration on Section 421, China expected this tool to be used, if ever, only in the rarest and most exceptional of cases". So China's pique is understandable, as are worries that this could lead to a slew of other American industries demanding protection against competition from Chinese imports.
奥巴马的决定标志着与近期的美国政策明显决裂。上届总统乔治·布什曾有4次针对中国的机会，但每次布什都选择了放弃。韦罗诺先生处理过这些案件，他说“基于他们与克林顿政府就421条作出的协商，中国仅仅只希望在最罕见、最特殊的情况下运用该条款。”因此，中国的气愤是可以理解的，中方担心这将致使大量美国工业要求保护以对抗中国进口商品的竞争。
It appears that Mr. Obama is desperate to shore-up support from unions and the left of the Democratic Party for health-care reform-his most pressing domestic concem-and is prepared to risk repercussions on trade.
似乎奥巴马急切地希望从工会和民主党左派人士寻求医改支持，医改是他迫在眉睫的国内的首要问题，并准备以贸易问题上的反响作为筹码。
