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The hardest part about coming up with great ideas is that
而提到创意，有一个坎就是
the best ideas often look terrible at the beginning.
任何好创意，在初期并不会崭露头角
The 13th search engine and without all the features of web portal.
第13版搜索引擎没有门户的概念
Most people thought that was pointless, search was done,
很多人并不看好
and anyway, it didn't matter that much,
认为没什么必要
Portal's where the value is at.
毕竟门户才是最重要的
The tenth social network, and limited only to college students with no money?
又比如第10版社交网络，只对大学生开放，而且免费
Also terrible.
所以市场前景并不可观
MySpace had won, and who wants college students as customers,
MySpace成功了，谁曾想过把大学生当作客户？
or a way to stay on strangers' couches?
又比方说Airbnb“寄宿在陌生人家里”的理念
That just sounds terrible all around.
乍一听好像都很荒谬
These all sounded really bad, but they turned out to be good.
开始时，这些创意都不被看好，但结果却出乎意料地好
If they had sounded really good,
如果开始时创意就很出色
there would have been too many people working on them.
那么会有更多人致力于开发这个创意
As Peter Tills discussed in the fifth class,
彼得·提尔斯在第五次课中会说
you want an idea that turns into a monopoly,
每个人都想让自己的创意发展成行业的垄断企业
but you can't get a monopoly in a big market right away.
但很明显，这不可能一蹴而就
Too much competition for that.
在企业发展过程中，会有激烈竞争
You have to find a small market in which you can get a monopoly, and then quickly expand.
那么首先，大家要找到一个自身有足够竞争力但相对小的市场，之后再快速扩张
This is why some great startup ideas look really bad at the beginning.
这也是为什么很多创意在初期并不被看好的原因
It's good if you can say something like,
如果今天只有一小部分顾客使用我的产品
today only the small subset of users are going to use my product.
这就足够好了
But I'm gonna get all of them.
因为这一小部分顾客，已经是我的客户群
And in the future, almost everyone will use my product.
在此之后，可能就有更多的人使用我的产品
Here's the thing that's gonna come up a lot,
同时还有一点
you need conviction in your own beliefs,
大家必须要坚定自己的信念
and the willingness to ignore others nay saying.
在别人提出反对意见时，要敢于坚持己见
The hard part is that this is a very fine line.
这一点很难，因为尺度很难把握
There's right on one side of it, and crazy on the other.
可能这样就做对了，而稍微差一点就会全盘皆输
But keep in mind that if you do come up with a great idea,
大家只要记住，对于一个好创意
most people are going to think it's bad.
可能在开始的时候所有人都会持反对意见
You should be happy about that.
出现这种情况大家反而应该放心
It means they won't compete with you.
这样至少没有人跟你竞争同一块市场了
This is also a reason why it's not usually dangerous to tell people about your idea.
所以跟别人讨论你的创意也没有关系
The truly good ideas don't sound like they're worth stealing.
真正好的创意，反而不引人注意
You want an idea about which you can say,
这样的创意比较好
I know it sounds like a bad idea.
创意听起来可能并不怎么样
But hear specifically why it's actually a great one.
但自己一定要想清楚这点子好在哪里
You wanna sound crazy, but you wanna actually be right.
这创意一方面可能不引人注意，但另一方面你又要让它足够好
And you want an idea that not many other people are working on.
我们还是希望，越少人跟自己的创意竞争越好
And it's okay if it doesn't sound big at first.
所以如果开始时创意并不起眼，没有关系
Common mistake among founders, especially first time founders,
很多创业者都会犯一个错误，尤其是初次创业的人们
is they think that the first version of their product,
一般都会认为自己的第一款产品
the first version of their idea, needs to sound really big.
或者说创意的原型，必须是特别宏大特别出色的
But it doesn't.
实际上，不必如此
It needs to take over a small, specific market and expand from there.
开始时你的创意只需要针对特定市场，再从这个小市场扩展
That's how most great companies have started.
很多大公司都是这么发展起来的
Unpopular but right is what you're going for.
开始并不被大众广泛接受
You want something that sounds like a bad idea, but is a good idea.
大家的创意，就算听起来不起眼，但本质上必须有潜力
You also really wanna take the time to think about how the market's going to evolve.
这也是为什么大家一定要潜心研究市场发展的规律
You need a market that's going to be big in ten years.
大家选定的目标市场必须能在之后十年内快速发展
Most investors are obsessed with the market size today,
很多投资人都着眼于现在的市场规模
and they don't think at all about how the market is going to evolve.
而不考虑市场的发展规律
In fact, I think this is one of the biggest systemic mistakes that investors make.
实际上这是投资人的一大误区
They think about the growth of the startup itself,
他们会考虑公司发展的轨迹
they don't think about the growth of the market.
却不考虑市场发展的规律
I care much more about the growth rate of the market than it's current size.
相较于市场现有规模，我更关注的是市场的增长速度
And I also care if there's any reason that it's gonna top out.
同时还要考虑什么因素会促进市场发展
You should think about this.
这些都需要大家投入思考
I'd prefer to invest in a company that's going after a small but rapidly growing market than a big but slow growing one.
相较于规模大但增长速度慢的市场，我会更倾向于投资现有规模小但能快速增长的市场
One of the big advantages of these sorts of markets um, these small but rapidly growing markets,
这种小市场一种优点就是
is that customers are usually pretty desperate for a solution.
顾客群的消费意识强烈，迫切需要产品
And they'll put, put up with an imperfect but rapidly improving product.
就算产品现阶段并不完善，但只要在不断改进，消费者是可以接受的
