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The therapies will be improving faster than
治疗法比起治疗法中存在的缺陷
the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
改进得更快。
This is a very important point for me to get across.
这是我想说的非常重要的一点。
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
因为，很多人一听到
that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,
我推测很多现在活着的人将会活到一千或更多年以上，
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades
他们都在想，哦，我们将会在这几十年内发明
that are so thoroughly eliminating aging
延缓老化的治疗方法，
that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治疗方法。
I'm not saying that at all.
我并不是这么说。
I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies
我说的只是这些延长寿命的治疗方法的
will be enough.
发展速度会足够使人们继续活下去。
They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things
这些治疗方法我想永远都不可能完美，
that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
但我们将可以在还没有两百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗两百岁的人所死于的病理因素。
And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.
接下来，我们就在还没有三，四百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗三，四百岁的人所死于的因素。
I decided to give this a little name,
我称这为“长寿逃逸速度”，
which is "longevity escape velocity."
要逃离死亡，长寿治疗方法必有快速的发展，叫逃逸速度。
Well, it seems to get the point across.
这是个很容易明白的名称。
So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live,
这就是我们可以期待
in terms of remaining life expectancy,
在余下的预期寿命，
as measured by their health,
以他们的健康来衡量，
for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
到了一定年龄，相对应的治疗就相应而出。
If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 --
如果你已经100岁，或者你是80岁，
and an average 80-year-old,
平均80岁，
we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies,
我们可能很难为您做些什么，
because you're too close to death's door
因为您的时间不多了。
for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
所以最初的，实验性疗法对你已经不起作用了。
You won't be able to withstand them.
你将无法避免老化。
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance
可是，如果您才五十岁的话，
that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know --
您很有可能像我刚刚描述的那个样子摆脱了老化去世的问题。
eventually get through this
您不但可以活的更久些，
and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,
某种意义上
in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,
你的青春，从身体和头脑上，你的生命变得更加年轻，
and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
你死于和老化有关的病症的几率也会降低。
And of course, if you're a bit younger than that,
当然，如果你还不到五十岁的话，
then you're never really even going
您更有可能永远摆脱了老化去世的问题，
to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
而不会虚弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡。
So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old --
因此，这是我得到的一个真正的结论，就是说第一位能够活到一百五十岁 –
we don't know how old that person is today,
我们不知道该人现在多老了，
because we don't know how long it's going to take
因为我们不知道第一代
to get these first-generation therapies.
疗法要多久才会出现。
But irrespective of that age,
但无论是年龄，
I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 --
我声称的第一人会活到一千年的人 –
subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes --
当然，排除全球性灾难 - 实际上，
is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.
大概只有比我说的那位活到一百五十岁的人年轻十岁左右。
And that's quite a thought.
很令人值得想一想的结论吧。
Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk,
好，接下来我要用这个讲座所剩下的时间，
my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;
我的七个半分钟来谈谈我所谓的第一个步骤，
namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
就是我们如何得到这第一批延长寿命的适中治疗，
that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
使我们可以达到长寿逃逸速度？
And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
而为了做到这一点，我需要说一点点关于老鼠的事。
I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
我有一个对强健人类再生相应的里程碑，
I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively.
我不是很富有想象力地称它为强健老鼠再生。
And this is what it is.
这是什么呢？
I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,
就是我们要采用一种长寿的老鼠，
which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠。
We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old.
我们完全没有碰过它们，直到它们已经两岁。
And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,
然后我们对它们做了一大堆的东西，
and with those therapies, we get them to live,
用那些治疗方法使它们延长寿命，
on average, to their fifth birthday.
想办法让他们平均活到五岁。
So, in other words, we add two years --
因此，换句话说，我们开始把这些老鼠治疗后，添加了两年寿命 –
we treble their remaining lifespan,
已经是它们剩余寿命
starting from the point that we started the therapies.
的三倍。
The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame
接下来的问题是，到底什么时候，
until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
我们讨论的这些才能用在人类身上呢？
Which we can now, as I've explained,
我们现在可以，正如我已经解释过，
equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.
把它称为强健人类再生，或长寿逃逸速度。
Secondly, what does it mean for the public's perception
第二，从我们得到的第一只老鼠时开始，
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
公众对多久我们才能获得这些东西，
starting from the time we get the mice?
对这些科技的发展有什么影响？
And thirdly, the question is, what will it do
第三，问题是，它对多少人想要避免老化的人们起作用？
to actually how much people want it?
这些科技有什么影响呢？
