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You know, if you haven't got an argument that's that strong,
你知道，如果你还没有比这一个说法更强的论点，
then just don't waste my time, is what I say.
那么就不要浪费我的时间。这是我的看法。
Now, there is one argument
话虽如此，有一种观点有些人认为，
that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
确实是很强，我们就在这儿讨论一下。
People worry about overpopulation; they say,
人们担心人口过多，他们说，
"Well, if we fix aging, no one's going to die to speak of,
“好吧，如果我们战胜老化，没有人类死亡可言，
or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
或至少是死亡人数变得低得多，
only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
变得只有不小心越过圣吉尔斯河而死。
And therefore, we're not going to be able to have many kids,
因此，我们不需要有很多孩子，
and kids are really important to most people."
可是孩子对多数人很重要。”
And that's true.
这是事实。
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,
你知道，很多人试图捏造这个问题，
and give answers like this.
并给予这样的答案。
I don't agree with those answers. I think they basically don't work.
我不同意这些答案。我认为它们根本行不通。
I think it's true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
我认为这是真的，我们会在这方面面临两难。
We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,
我们将必须决定是否有一个低生育水平，
or a high death rate.
或者高死亡率。
A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,
拒绝这些战胜老化治疗，死亡率就会变高，
in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
当然，在这种情况下我们就能生许多孩子。
And, I say that that's fine --
我觉得这没问题 –
the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
人类的下一代，有权做出这个选择。
What's not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
不正确和不应该的是我们现在就替下一代的做出这个选择。
If we vacillate, hesitate,
如果因为我们犹豫，
and do not actually develop these therapies,
而不开发这些疗法，
then we are condemning a whole cohort of people --
那么我们就等于判了我们的子孙一个不能永远活着的命运。
who would have been young enough and healthy enough
本来因为他们够年轻，够健康，
to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,
可以获益于这些疗法。
because we haven't developed them as quickly as we could --
但因为我们的犹豫，没有尽快开发这些疗法 –
we'll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
我们等于不让这些人有更长的寿命，
and I consider that that is immoral.
我认为这是不道德的。
That's my answer to the overpopulation question.
这是我对人口过多的问题的回应。
Right. So the next thing is,
好，接下来的是，
now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
为什么我们应该在这一方面积极点？
And the fundamental answer is that
最根本的答案是，
the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
亲老化恍惚并不像它看起来的那么笨。
It's actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
它其实是在应对无法避免的老化时的一个很明智的办法。
Aging is ghastly, but it's inevitable, so, you know,
老化是可怕的，但它是不可避免的，所以，
we've got to find some way to put it out of our minds,
我们必须想尽办法把这想法从我们头脑中忘记，
and it's rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
理性地去做我们想要做的事情来改变。
Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons
例如，人类会想出这些荒谬的原因
why aging is actually a good thing after all.
来解释其实老化是件好事。
But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
当然，这些荒谬的原因的起因有两个连接部分
And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear --
只要命中注定那个部分在我们的脑海中没那么的肯定，
and we might be in range of doing something about aging --
我们就可以开始对战胜老化采取行动，
this becomes part of the problem.
这是老化问题的一部分。
This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
这亲老化恍惚常常妨碍人们解决老化这个问题。
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
这就是为什么我们一定要继续提出以及谈论这个课题，
evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot --
我甚至会说 –
in order to get people's attention, and make people realize
为了吸引人们的注意力，使人们认识到，
that they are in a trance in this regard.
他们在这方面的恍惚，
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
关于这个话题我就说到这里。
I'm now going to talk about feasibility.
我现在要谈的是第三点，打败老化的可行性。
And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable
其根本原因，我想，为什么我们认为老化是不可避免的，
is summed up in a definition of aging that I'm giving here.
是可以用我在这儿给老化的定义作为总结。
A very simple definition.
这是一个非常简单的定义。
Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,
老化是一种活着的副作用，
which is to say, metabolism.
也就是说，新陈代谢的副作用。
This is not a completely tautological statement;
这并不是一个完全同义重复的声明，
it's a reasonable statement.
它是一个合理的声明。
Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,
老龄化基本上是一个过程，发生在无生命的物体如汽车，
and it also happens to us,
也发生在人类的身上，
despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
尽管我们的身体有很多聪明的自我修复机制，
because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
因为这些自我修复机制还不完善。
So basically, metabolism, which is defined as
基本上，新陈代谢，就是说
basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,
所有为了让我们能够每一天活着所维持的种种化学过程，
has side effects.
有副作用。
Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
这些副作用会不断的积累，最终导致病理。
That's a fine definition. So we can put it this way:
这是一个不错的定义。因此，我们可以这样表达,
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
我们可以说，大家都知道，我们有着这一系列事件。
And there are really two games in town,
而且根据大多数人，对于推迟衰老，
according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
只有两种方法。
They're what I'm calling here the "gerontology approach" and the "geriatrics approach."
这两种方法就是老年学和老年医学。
