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It goes up by 15 percent,
对于所有事物都是如此
and you have a 15 percent savings
你还能节省
on the infrastructure.
15%的基础设施经费
This, no doubt, is the reason
这无疑就是
why a million people a week are gathering in cities.
城市每周新增一百万人口的原因
Because they think that all those wonderful things --
他们觉得那些美好的事物
like creative people, wealth, income --
包括创新人才，财富，收入
is what attracts them,
对他们有吸引力
forgetting about the ugly and the bad.
而忘记了城市丑恶的一面
What is the reason for this?
原因何在
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,
我没有时间跟大家解释其中的数学
but underlying this is the social networks,
社会网络是其基础
because this is a universal phenomenon.
因为这是个普遍现象
This 15 percent rule
这个15%的规律
is true
是真的
no matter where you are on the planet --
无论你在地球上哪个角落
Japan, Chile,
日本，智利
Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.
葡萄牙，苏格兰，都一样
Always, all the data shows it's the same,
尽管城市的发展是各自独立的
despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.
然而所有数据显示的结果都是一样的
Something universal is going on.
这里蕴藏着一个普遍的规律
The universality, to repeat, is us --
普遍性在于我们
that we are the city.
我们就是城市
And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.
城市是我们相互活动以及这些活动的汇集
So there it is, I've said it again.
我刚才说过了
So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,
那些网络和它们的数学结构
unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,
与呈次线性的生物界不同
economies of scale,
生物是规模经济
you had the slowing of the pace of life
会随着规模的增大
as you get bigger.
而减缓生长的速度
If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --
如果城市的社会网络呈现超线性
more per capita --
人均数值越高
then the theory says
那么依照原理
that you increase the pace of life.
生长速度便会增加
The bigger you are, life gets faster.
你长得越大，生长速度就越快
On the left is the heart rate showing biology.
左边是心率
On the right is the speed of walking
右边是行走的速度
in a bunch of European cities,
在许多欧洲城市
showing that increase.
显示这样的增长情况
Lastly, I want to talk about growth.
最后，我想谈谈增长
This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.
在重复一下，这是生物学的情况
Economies of scale
规模经济
gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.
使之呈现反曲现象
You grow fast and then stop --
你快速生长接着停止生长
part of our resilience.
这是我们回复力的表现
That would be bad for economies and cities.
这对经济和城市都不利
And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory
说实在的，这个原理奇妙之处之一在于
is that if you have super-linear scaling
如果财富创造和创新的
from wealth creation and innovation,
规模增长呈超线性
then indeed you get, from the same theory,
那么根据同一理论，你必定会得到
a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.
一条美妙的正态曲线，漂亮极了
And in fact, if you compare it to data,
实际上，如果你把它与数据进行对比
it fits very well
它非常符合
with the development of cities and economies.
城市与经济的发展情况
But it has a terrible catch,
然而，它存在着一个致命局限
and the catch
这个局限就是
is that this system is destined to collapse.
这个系统注定会崩溃
And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --
它之所以注定会崩溃，原因有很多
kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.
多少出于此消彼长的原因，资源枯竭了
And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.
如何避免这种情况呢，我们曾尝试过
What we do is,
我们所做的是
as we grow and we approach the collapse,
当我们发展到接近崩溃的阶段
a major innovation takes place
一项重大的创新出现了
and we start over again,
我们又从新开始
and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.
向下一个目标靠近，以此类推
So there's this continuous cycle of innovation
所以这个周而复始的创新周期
that is necessary
对于维系发展
in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.
避免崩溃，是十分必要的
The catch, however, to this
然而，这一局限
is that you have to innovate
要求你必须
faster and faster and faster.
不断加速创新
So the image
所以，情况就是
is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,
我们不仅坐在一架高速运转的机器上
but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.
我们还必须加速对机器的更新
We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.
我们必须不停地加速
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,
问题是，作为社会经济的存在
avoid a heart attack?
我们能够避免心脏病发作吗
So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two
最后，我会花一两分钟
asking about companies.
看看公司的情况
See companies, they scale.
公司的规模不断增大
The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.
上面右边的是沃尔玛
It's the same plot.
同样的图表
This happens to be income and assets
这张图显示的是收入和资产
versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.
比上公司规模，即员工人数
We could use sales, anything you like.
我们还可以用销售量，什么都行
There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,
看，当公司进行革新
when companies are innovating,
一开始出现轻微浮动
they scale beautifully.
它们长势良好
And we've looked at 23,000 companies
我们观察了23000家
in the United States, may I say.
美国境内的企业
And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.
我今天展示给大家的只是冰山一角
What is astonishing about companies
企业令人意想不到的地方是
is that they scale sublinearly
是它们的规模增长呈次线性
like biology,
就像生物学的情况一样
indicating that they're dominated,
这表明主导它们的
not by super-linear
并不是超线性的
innovation and ideas;
创新活动和思想
they become dominated
主导它们的
by economies of scale.
是规模经济
In that interpretation,
具体说来
by bureaucracy and administration,
就是官僚主义和行政部门
and they do it beautifully, may I say.
可以说，它们干得很棒
So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,
所以，如果你告诉我某个小企业的规模
I could have predicted the size of Walmart.
我就可以估摸出沃尔玛的规模
If it has this sublinear scaling,
如果其规模的增长呈次线性
the theory says
依照原理
we should have sigmoidal growth.
我们应该会得到一个S型的增长
There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.
这是沃尔玛，看起来并不十分像个S
That's what we like, hockey sticks.
我们喜欢这个形状，冰球棍
But you notice, I've cheated,
但如果你仔细看，我其实做了手脚
because I've only gone up to '94.
因为我展示的部分只到94年
Let's go up to 2008.
我们看看到了2008年情况如何
That red line is from the theory.
红线表示的是理论上的预测
So if I'd have done this in 1994,
如果我1994年开始制表
I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.
我就能够预测到沃尔玛现在的情况
And then this is repeated
这个情况
across the entire spectrum of companies.
在所有公司的生命周期中不断重复
There they are. That's 23,000 companies.
这些就是所有23000家公司
They all start looking like hockey sticks,
它们一开始都呈现冰球棍的形状
they all bend over,
接着都弯下来了
and they all die like you and me.
最后它们就像你我一样难逃一死
Thank you.
谢谢大家
