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So here's two questions
每当我思考这个问题
that I have in my head when I think about this problem.
两个疑问一直在我脑子里打转
The first is:
第一
Are cities part of biology?
城市是生物界的一部分吗
Is London a great big whale?
伦敦是一只大鲸鱼吗
Is Edinburgh a horse?
爱丁堡是一匹马吗
Is Microsoft a great big anthill?
微软是一座巨型蚁山吗
What do we learn from that?
我们从中能得到什么启发
We use them metaphorically --
我们可以使用比喻
the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --
一个公司的DNA，一个城市的新陈代谢，等等
is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,
这些都是胡扯，乱七八糟的比喻
or is there serious substance to it?
还是有严谨的依据
And if that is the case,
如果确有依据
how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
为什么城市总是生生不息呢
You could drop an atom bomb on a city,
你可以扔一个原子弹炸毁一个城市
and 30 years later it's surviving.
而30年之后，它依然存在
Very few cities fail.
消亡的城市寥寥无几
All companies die, all companies.
而所有公司都会关门，无一例外
And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict
如果你掌握了缜密的原理，你就应该可以预测
when Google is going to go bust.
谷歌什么时候关门大吉
So is that just another version
这是不是
of this?
这个画面的翻版
Well we understand this very well.
我们对此非常清楚
That is, you ask any generic question about this --
如果你随便问一个常识问题
how many trees of a given size,
某已知体积的大树有多少棵
how many branches of a given size does a tree have,
一颗体积已知的大树有多少分枝
how many leaves,
多少树叶
what is the energy flowing through each branch,
每根树枝中流动的能量是什么
what is the size of the canopy,
树冠有多大
what is its growth, what is its mortality?
它长势如何，寿命多长
We have a mathematical framework
我们有一套数学体系
based on generic universal principles
建立在普遍原理的基础上
that can answer those questions.
它能够解答那些问题
And the idea is can we do the same for this?
问题是，它是否适用于城市
So the route in is recognizing
首先我们要认识到
one of the most extraordinary things about life,
生命最奇妙之处，其中之一
is that it is scalable,
就是它是会长大的
it works over an extraordinary range.
它能够长到非常之大
This is just a tiny range actually:
这只是很小的一个尺度
It's us mammals;
这是我们，哺乳动物
we're one of these.
我们是其中之一
The same principles, the same dynamics,
相同的原理，相同的活动
the same organization is at work
相同的组织，在所有这些动物中
in all of these, including us,
发挥着作用，我们也包括在内
and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.
它能够长大到一亿个单位
And that is one of the main reasons
生命如此周而复始，欣欣向荣
life is so resilient and robust --
这就是原因之一
scalability.
伸展性
We're going to discuss that in a moment more.
我们一会再讨论这个
But you know, at a local level,
从我们自身出发
you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.
你会长大，在座所有人的身体都长大了
That's called growth.
这就是成长
Here's how you grew.
你就是这么成长的
Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
这是一只老鼠，也可以是你
We're all pretty much the same.
我们之间非常相似
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
你们可以看到，你的情况与之十分相似
You grow very quickly and then you stop.
你长得很快，接着停止生长
And that line there
上面的那条线
is a prediction from the same theory,
是同一理论推导出来的
based on the same principles,
所依据的原理
that describes that forest.
与描述森林的原理相同
And here it is for the growth of a rat,
这显示的是老鼠的生长情况
and those points on there are data points.
上面的点是数据点
This is just the weight versus the age.
即体重与年龄的比例
And you see, it stops growing.
你看，它停止生长了
Very, very good for biology --
这对生物界非常有益
also one of the reasons for its great resilience.
这也证明了其强大的伸展性
Very, very bad
但对我们目前规划中的
for economies and companies and cities
经济，公司和城市而而言
in our present paradigm.
这是非常糟糕的
This is what we believe.
我们就是这么认为的
This is what our whole economy
这就是我们的经济
is thrusting upon us,
强加给我们的
particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:
左上角的图表凸显了这一点
hockey sticks.
冰球棍
This is a bunch of software companies --
它显示的是众多软件公司
and what it is is their revenue versus their age --
收入与公司建立时间的比例
all zooming away,
它们都平步青云
and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.
每家公司都大把大把地捞钱
Okay, so how do we understand this?
那么，我们如何解读
So let's first talk about biology.
我们先来讨论一下生物学
This is explicitly showing you
这让你清清楚楚地看到
how things scale,
事物的规模是如何增大的
and this is a truly remarkable graph.
这幅图表意义非凡
What is plotted here is metabolic rate --
上面显示的是新陈代谢率
how much energy you need per day to stay alive --
为维持生命你每天需要摄入的能量
versus your weight, your mass,
比上你的体重
for all of us bunch of organisms.
这适用于人类以及许多其它生物
And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,
它的结构很有意思，以10倍递进
otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.
否则你无法看到全局
And what you see if you plot it
在这样一个有意思的图标中
in this slightly curious way
你可以看到
is that everybody lies on the same line.
每个人都落在了同一条线上
Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system
尽管这是宇宙中
in the universe,
最为纷繁复杂的系统
there's an extraordinary simplicity
但它显示了一个
being expressed by this.
极为简单现象
It's particularly astonishing
这令人震惊
because each one of these organisms,
这上面的每个物种
each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,
每个子系统，每个细胞种类，每个基因
has evolved in its own unique environmental niche
都在其独特的生态位和历史中
with its own unique history.
得到进化发展
And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution
然而，即使经过了达尔文派支持的进化论
and natural selection,
和自然选择
they've been constrained to lie on a line.
它们最终还是集中到了一条线上
Something else is going on.
还有其它力量在发挥作用
