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Well, that’s a short little sermon.
上面我简单地我说了一下我的看法。
So Let's get on with what you’re interested in.
下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的。
And like I say, in go all over.
就像我之前说的那样。
So, I don’t know exactly how we gotta have this, but let's start with a hand here someplace or other.
我不知道接下来怎样进行，那我们从举手示意的同学开始提问题吧。
There we go, for the first one...yeah, right here.
第一个问题，那个同学。
Q： Your thoughts about Japan?
问题：您对日本的看法？
W: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy.
巴菲特：我对日本的看法？我不是一个太宏观的人。
Now I said to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money for 10 years at one percent.
我所在的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1％。
I say gee, I took Graham’s class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this thing all my life.
我对自己说，45年前，我上了本杰明.格拉姆的课程，然后我就一直勤勤恳恳，努力工作，
Maybe I can earn more than 1% annually. I really work hard at it.
也许我应该比1％挣的多点吧？
One percent. It doesn’t seem impossible, doesn’t it?
看上去那不是不可能的。
So I wouldn’t want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated.
我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险，所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产。
I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort and all I have to do is to beat 1%.
如地产或企业，必须是日本国内的。我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1％多，
That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years.
因为那是我资金的成本，十年内我要收回来的。
So far I haven’t found anything. It is kind of interesting.
可直到现在，我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意。这真的很有趣。
The Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity,
日本企业的资产回报率都很低。
and they have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, 6% on equity
他们有少数企业会有4％，5％，或6％的回报。
and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn’t earn very much money.
如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话，那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的。
Now some people do it in fact.
当然，有一些人也赚了钱。
I've got a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did.
我有一个和我同期为本杰明.格拉姆工作过的朋友，他叫沃尔特·施洛斯。
And it was the first way I went to stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A very cheap, quantitative stocks.
那是我第一次运用买股票的方法，即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司，非常便宜但股票数量有限的公司。
I call it the “cigar butt” approach to investing.
我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法。
You walk down the street, you look around for a cigar butt someplace.
你满地找雪茄烟蒂，
And you finally see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it .
终于你找到一个湿透了的，令人讨厌的烟蒂，看上去还能抽上一口。
So you pick it up and the puff is free.
那一口可是免费的。
I mean it is a cigar butt stock. I mean you get one free puff on it and then you throw it away and walk down the street and try another one.
你把它捡起来，抽上最后一口，然后扔了，接着找下一个。
I mean it is not elegant, but it works.
这听上去一点都不优雅，但是很有效。
If you are looking for a free puff,it works.
如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟，这方法还值得做。
Those are low return businesses.
不要做低回报率的生意。
